CHM Blog

We have a heavy economic calendar this week. Markets continue to believe the Fed will lower their key rate next week. It isn’t a question of if, it’s a question of what the data will show about future cuts. The BLS is expected to combine September and October monthly employment data and report on December 9th. Inflation measured by the PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation) is schedule for Friday along with personal income and spending. The data released this week will largely be for September, old news but that is all we have.

This morning the 10 year note started at 4.03% at 7 am ET, by 9 am at 4.05%, MBS prices at 9 am -14 bps from Friday’s close. Tomorrow the October JOLTS job openings. ADP’s jobs report, due on Wednesday expected at +20K jobs in November down from 42K in October adds credence that employment is slowing. Thursday weekly jobless claims 225K from 216K the prior week. September PCE inflation Friday, (old data) month/month thought to be +0.3%, year/year overall +2.8%; core PCE month/month +0.3%, year/year +2.9%.

In other news, the President is said to have made his decision about the next Fed chief, according to reports he will announce it prior to Christmas. Powell’s term ends in May.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -267 after increasing 289 last Friday, NASDAQ -194K from +151 Friday, S&P -42 from +36. The 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.09% +7 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -17 bps from Friday’s close and -18 bps from 9:30 am Friday.

At 9:45 am November manufacturing PMI expected at 51.5, reported at 52.2.

At 10 am November ISM manufacturing index thought to be 49.0, reported at 48.2.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.09% +7 bp

5 year note: 3.66% +6 bp

2 year note: 3.54% +4 bp

30 year bond: 4.75% +8 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.09 -17 bp (-18 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.33 -6 bp (-5 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.88 -10 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yen: 154.97 -1.20 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1634 +$0.0037

Dollar Index: 99.17 -0.28

Gold: $4,260.60 +$5.70

Bitcoin: 86,055 -5281 (last week the coin increased 6,492)

Crude Oil: $59.50 +$0.97

DJIA: 47,660 -56

NASDAQ: 23,252 -114

S&P 500: 6828 -21

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.