CHM Blog

December PCE inflation increased more than expected across the spectrum. Month/month overall PCE estimates were +0.3%, reported +0.4% and up from +0.2% in November. Year/year overall +2.9% against expectations of +2.8% and up from 2.7% in November. The core PCE ex-food and energy month/month thought to be +0.3%, increased 0.4% and up from +0.2% in November, year/year core increased to 3.0% with forecasts of +2.9% and up from 2.8% in November.

December personal income in line with estimates at 0.3% month/month; personal consumption expenditures month/month +0.4% against forecasts of +0.3%.

Q4 2025 GDP weaker than forecasts at +1.4% with forecasts of 2.8% and down from 4.1% in Q3, it is the advance release, the final a month from now. The contributors to the increase in real GDP were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports also decreased. Considering full 2025, the economy expanded 2.2%, below 2.8% in 2024, and primarily reflecting increases in consumer spending and investment. The GDP Price Deflator was up 3.6%.

At 10 am the University of Michigan final February consumer sentiment index expected at 57.0 from 57.3.

Also at 10 am November new home sales expected at 735K reported at 758K. December new home sales thought to be 728K reported at 745K.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.08% unch

5 year note: 3.66% +2 bp

2 year note: 3.48% +2 bp

30 year bond: 4.71% unch

30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.25 unch (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.54 +1 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.14 +3 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 155.42 +0.44 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1764 -$0.0010

Dollar Index: 97.25 +0.03

Gold: $5,069.40 +$72.00

Bitcoin: 67,069 -20

Crude Oil: $66.14 -$0.39

DJIA: 49,281 -114

NASDAQ: 22,682 -1

S&P 500: 6857 -5

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.