July 17th, 2026 12:21 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The war with Iran is escalating, crude oil this morning +$2.14, stock indexes under pressure. The recent CPI and PPI declines in June were one offs, real inflation is higher than those releases and Warsh insists the Fed will cut inflation.
June housing starts estimates 1.320 million increased 1.427 million; building permits thought to be at 1.400 million slipped to 1.367 million. Starts up 19% the highest in three months. Permits down 3.0%; permits for buildings with five or more units slipped 4.9% to 445,000, and single-family permits fell 2.4% to 871,000.
June import and export prices: import prices +0.3% with forecasts of -0.3%, year/year +7.1%, export prices +7.1% as expected, year/year -0.6% with estimates at +0.8%, year/year +10.2%.
June industrial production estimates month/month 0.2%, reported +0.1%; capacity utilization forecasts +0.2%, reported 0.0%.
At 10 am June mid-month University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, thought to be 51.3 from 49.5 in June.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.52% -4 bp
5 year note: 4.24% -4 bp
2 year note: 4.13% -3 bp
30 year bond: 5.05% -3 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.96 +13 bp (+18 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.79 +6 bp (+9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.18 +3 bp (+9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 162.39 unch yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1435 -$0.0010
Dollar Index: 100.80 +0.04
Gold: $3,988.60 -$3.50
Bitcoin: 62,501 -1719
Crude Oil: $81.50 +$2.58
DJIA: 52,488 -64
NASDAQ: 25,509 -372
S&P 500: 7478 -55
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.