CHM Blog

At 8:30 am a number of important data points. April PCE inflation month/month was better than forecasts; month/month overall expected +0.5% increased 0.4%, core PCE month/month thought to be +0.3% increased 0.2%. The year/year overall PCE expected +3.8% was reported +3.8% but increased from +3.5% in March; year/year core at 3.3% as expected but up from 3.2% in March. Inflation steady but not increasing as many have expected.

Weekly jobless claims thought to be at 213K reported at 215K up 5K from the previous week. Continuing jobless claims rose by 15,000 to 1,786,000 on the second week of May, in line with expectations of 1,780,000. Claim counts remained firmly below averages from the previous year and extended the period of stability since the declines in initial claims in the last months, maintaining the backdrop of a robust labor market.

April personal income was unchanged from March with forecasts of +0.4%; personal spending estimates at +0.5% hit the target, +0.5% $111.1B, slowing from an upwardly revised 1% gain in March and matching market expectations, Energy prices increased $28.8B.

April durable goods orders increased 7.9% with estimates at +2.8% month/month. Ex transportation orders +1.1% with estimates at +0.4%. It is the strongest increase in new orders since May 2025, mainly reflecting higher demand for transportation equipment (+21.5%).

Finally, at 8:30 am the second look at Q1 GDP, the initial report had growth at 2.0%, expectations were at +2.1% but declined to +1.6%; Q4 GDP was +0.5%.

At 10 am April new home sales, expected at 662K reported at 622K. Details this afternoon.

At 1 pm $44B 7 year note auction.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.49% unch

5 year note: 4.19% +1 bp

2 year note: 4.05% +1 bp

30 year bond: 5.01% unch

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.85 -5 bp (-6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.12 -6 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.78 +3 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 159.42 -0.10 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1649 +$0.0014

Dollar Index: 99.17 -0.03

Gold: $4,453.70 +$5.30

Bitcoin: 72,773 -2141

Crude Oil: $90.97 +$2.29

DJIA: 50,531 -114

NASDAQ: 26,655 -20

S&P 500: 7520 unch

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.