June 1st, 2026 9:15 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
There is little chance of any significant movement lower for rates if there isn’t progress with negotiations between the US and Iran. Last week optimism was high, crude oil declined. The 10 year note -11 bps in rates, the 2 year -11 bps; FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon +61 bps, crude dropped $9.00/barrel. This morning with no progress the 10 year note increased 3 bps overnight, crude oil increased $3.50; both found some relief when US trading began, but by 9:30 am ET crude oil added more losses pushing US rates higher. (see below)
We have key data this week on employment.
This week’s calendar:
Monday:
May ISM manufacturing index.
Tuesday:
April JOLTS job openings.
Wednesday:
Weekly MBA mortgage applications, May ADP private payrolls (+118K from +109K in April), May ISM services sector index, the Fed’s Beige Book.
Thursday:
Weekly jobless claims 212K from 215K the prior week, May Challenger, Grey, and Christmas job cuts, Q1 productivity and unit labor costs.
Friday:
May employment data (NFP jobs +85K from 115K in April, private jobs +90K from 123K, the unemployment rate 4.3% unchanged from May, average hourly earnings month/month +0.3% from +0.2% in April).
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.50% +6 bps
5 year note: 4.22% +7 bps
2 year note: 4.08% +7 bps
30 year bond: 5.02% +5 bps
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.96 -15 bps (-11 bps from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.2 -24 bps (-21 bps from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.78 -1`0 bp (-8 bps from 9:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yen: 159.71 +0.43 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1621 -$0.0041
Dollar Index: 99.23 +0.33
Gold: $4,496.00 -$97.00 (strong dollar)
Bitcoin: 71,51 -1935
Crude Oil: $92.77 +$5.41
DJIA: 50,964 -68
NASDAQ: 26,953 -19
S&P 500: 7576 -4
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.