August 31st, 2026 11:08 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
US and Iran traded attacks over the weekend, the first engagements since early July. The reaction in early trade this morning wasn’t much, the 10 year note up 2 bps, stock indexes al little lower but crude oil price at 8 am ET +$2.88.
Last Friday’s speech from Kevin Warsh put bond markets under pressure, the 2 year note increased 11 bps, the 10 increased 5 bps on comments from Warsh and previously Secretary of Treasury Bessent that funding the debt would use short term rates and less long term rates. Mr. Warsh left markets tilting to a potential rate increase at the September 16th FOMC meeting. Warsh made it clear he wants inflation down to 2.0%, now 3.4%.
This is employment week; it gets rolling on Wednesday with August private jobs from ADP (48K from 44K in July). Friday the BLS August data:
Other key data this week, tomorrow July JOLTS job openings (7.350 million from 7.359 million). Thursday weekly jobless claims (205K from 203K), also Thursday Q2 productivity and unit labor costs, productivity at 1.4% the same as the preliminary release, unit labor costs +1.3% also the same as the preliminary release.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.76% +4 bp
5 year note: 4.51% +2 bp
2 year note: 4.35% unch
30 year bond: 5.26% +5 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.07 -7 bp (-20 bp from 10 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 98.93 -12 bp (-31 bp from 10 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.35 -4 bp (-20 bp from 10 am Friday)
Dollar/Yen: 159.83 -0.24 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1596 +$0.0011
Dollar Index: 99.53 -0.17
Gold: $4,466.60 -$43.30
Bitcoin: 77,988 -865
Crude Oil: $86.00 +$2.60
DJIA: 53,207 -353
NASDAQ: 26,300 -102
S&P 500: 7677 -35
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.