August 26th, 2026 10:16 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
At 8:30 am ET July PCE inflation hit along with personal income and expenditures. PCE inflation essentially as expected, a slight increase in overall but the core, excluding food and energy, was dead on forecasts. Both personal income and spending were stronger than estimates.
Other data at 8:30 am, Q2 preliminary growth at 1.5% the same as the advance release a month ago. July durable goods orders better than estimates +1.1% with forecasts of 0.5%; core capital goods +0.2% with expectations at +0.9%, June core goods revised from +0.9% to +1.7%.
MBA mortgage applications last week were down 1.0% from the prior week. Purchase applications -0.3%, refinances -2.0%.
At 1 pm $70B 5 year note auction.
Supporting the view that inflation has moderated recently, crude oil prices are declining. Iran and Oman working on a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Markets now await Fed chair Warsh on Friday morning. His keynote address at the Global Economic Forum should provide additional information for markets.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.66% +3 bp
5 year note: 4.39% +5 bp
2 year note: 4.23% +4 bp
30 year bond: 5.19% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 101.49 -11 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 99.48 -17 p (+2 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 101.56 -6 bp (+6 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 159.37 +0.15 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1658 -$0.0018
Dollar Index: 99.12 +0.20
Gold: $4,671.60 +$21.90
Bitcoin: 78,383 -552
Crude Oil: $81.08 -$1.27
DJIA: 53,571 -7
NASDAQ: 26,171 +20
S&P 500: 7684 +7
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.