CHM Blog

Yesterday the 10 year note slipped 3 bps, this morning at 8 am ET and down another 4 bps. Two factors putting a little support into treasuries, Treasury Department making a point that it can alleviate some of the stress on long term rates to combat the continuing increase in US debt using its $1 trillion from its general account. The other, crude oil continues to decline taking a little fear of inflation down a notch.

Tomorrow July inflation via the PCE (personal consumption expenditures), one of the Fed’s go to monthly inflation readings. The estimates are rather benign year/year but increase month/month. July personal income and spending also tomorrow.

Earlier this morning June Case/Shiller home price index from 20 cities; month/month expected +0.1%, increased 0.2%, year/year +2.1% against +1.7% expected and up from +1.6% in May.

At 10 am July new home sales, expected at 620K from 628K in June, sales reported 407K.

August consumer confidence from the Conference Board also at 10 am, index expected at 90.1 from 90.8 in July. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 1.4 points to 90.8 in July, down from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 3.6 points to 114.9, its third consecutive monthly decline. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—remained unchanged at 74.7. The survey period for this month’s preliminary results was July 1–22, encompassing ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.67% -3 bp

5 year note: 4.37% -4 bp

2 year note: 4.21% -2 bp

30 year bond: 5.20% -3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.44 +16 bp (+20 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.46 +23 bp (+31 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.50 +10 bp (+13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 159.26 +0.16 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1669 +$0.0006

Dollar Index: 98.95 -0.05

Gold: $4,670.40 -$27.40

Bitcoin: 79,059 +314

Crude Oil: $82.40 -$2.61

DJIA: 53,442 +25

NASDAQ: 26,145 +169

S&P 500: 7675 +22

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.