CHM Blog

The headlines this week, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and April unemployment data on Friday. Mixed in the data, measurements of manufacturing and the service sector and April consumer confidence from the Conference board. At 9 am ET the 10 year note down 3 bps to 4.64%, MBSs at 9 am +11 bps from Friday.

This morning the Japanese yen fell to its lowest level against the dollar in 34 years; last week talk that Japan would intervene in the currency market to stop the decline but Japan’s top currency official, Masato Kanda, chose to keep investors guessing by declining to comment. Dow Jones reported authorities stepped in to buy the yen, citing people familiar with the matter. The yen topped 161 yen to the dollar before a huge reversal, at 9 am 156.41, the widest trading range since late 2022.

There isn’t any data today; markets prepping for Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. recent inflation reports have not been cooperating with the fed looking for inflation to decline. All three inflation measurements, CPI, PPI and PCE releases provided little support for the Fed cutting rates anytime soon, there is increasing talk the Fed may increase rates. Consumers continue to spend, prices for essentials like food and gas still not lessening but try as it might to ignore overall inflation and focus mostly on the core, ex food and energy isn’t as true a measurement as it was in years past.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +76, NASDAQ +76, S&P +16. 10 year note 4.64% -3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +12 bps from Friday’s closes and +23 bps from 9:30 am Friday.

With no key news this morning and nothing on the calendar today, rates don’t have much to go on. The calendar is full of critical data this week, two main events, FOMC and April employment data. Should be a quiet one today.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.65% -2 bp

5 year note: 4.67% -2 bp

2 year note: 5.00% unch

30 year bond: 4.77% -1 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 99.47 +12 bp (+23 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 101.14 +9 bp (+16 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 98.34 +13 bp (+28 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2426 -$0.0035

Dollar/Yen: 156.55 -1.79 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0695 +$0.0002

Dollar Index: 105.89 -0.05

Gold: $2,344.80 -$2.40

Bitcoin: 61,982 -1754

Crude Oil: $83.42 -$0.44

DJIA: 38,347 +107

NASDAQ: 15,948 +20

S&P 500: 5110 +10

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.