CHM Blog

Overnight rates edged lower continuing the retracement yesterday, but by 8:30 am ET the 10 year note lost the momentum, the 10 year note at 8:30 am +1 bps at 4.60%, MBS price at 8:30 am -5 bps from yesterday’s close.

At 8:30 am weekly jobless claims were expected at 215K, reported at 212K leaving claims unchanged from the previous week, the 4-week average at 214.5K also unchanged from the week before. The number of people already collecting unemployment benefits in the U.S., meanwhile, edged up by 2,000 to 1.81 million.

April Philadelphia Fed business index recently has been a struggle. The index was thought to be at 2.5 from 3.2 in March, the index increased to a whopping 15.5. The index has increased for the third time over the last three months and is now the strongest since April 2022. The NE measurements over the last year, as the economy continued to grow, was lagging; a nice bounce but it won’t have an impact on markets today.

The run to safety into treasuries on Monday and Tuesday is cooling, yesterday a nice technical move, no follow-through so far this morning. Fundamentals haven’t changed, just profit-taking from traders capturing good gains as news dried up yesterday from the mid-east. The Fed can’t make it any clearer, no rate cuts coming soon with inflation holding strong, employment at historical lows, and consumer spending continuing. Powell and every other Fed official have been making it clear there is no hurry to lower rates, fearing adding to inflation. Late yesterday Fed Cleveland President Loretta Mester said monetary policy is in a good place, adding that the central bank shouldn’t be in a hurry to cut rates. And Governor Michelle Bowman noted that progress on inflation may have stalled.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +130, NASDAQ +23, S&P +12. 10 year note 4.61% +2 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 -11 bps from yesterday’s close and +12 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am March existing home sales, expected at 4.18 million, reported at 4.19 month/month -4.3% from 4.38 million in February, year/year -3.7%. We’ll have the specifics this afternoon.

The expected consolidation continuing, all our near-term technical indicators remain bearish.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.63% +4 bp

5 year note: 4.67% +5 bp

2 year note: 4.99% +4 bp

30 year bond: 4.73% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 99.49 -11 bp (+12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 1001.29 unch (+15 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 98.21 -6 bp (+10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2389 unch

Dollar/Yen: 154.55 +0.17 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0652 -$0.0022

Dollar Index: 106.10 +0.15

Gold: $2,395.90 +$7.50

Bitcoin: 62,557 +1558

Crude Oil: $82.54 -$0.15

DJIA: 37,968 +215

NASDAQ: 15,687 +3

S&P 500: 5031 +8

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by the tbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor the tbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.