CHM Blog

The March employment data this morning was generally in line with estimates. NFP jobs expected at 240K, reported +236K. Feb jobs revised from 311K to 326K. Private jobs expected 233k did decline to 189K. Average hourly earnings +0.3% as expected, year/year expected at 4.3% reported +4.2% and well below 4.6% in Feb. The labor participation rate 62.6% increased from 62.5% in Feb.

The initial reaction took the 10 year note to 3.37% +8 bps from yesterday’s close, the 2 year note increased 12 bps. MBS prices on the news down 14 bps. Stock indexes in futures trading increased, DJIA +53, NASDAQ +2, S&P +8. The stock market closed at 9:15 am ET.

The report suggests the job market isn’t as weak as the recent data on weekly claims, ADP job growth, JOLTS job openings and weakness in the service sector as reported with the ISM data. Yesterday weekly jobless claims were stronger than forecasts, +228K against 201K estimates and the prior week revised from 198K to 246K.

At 9:30 am the 10 year note traded at 3.37% +6 bps, the 5.5 30 year FNMA coupon -23 bps, and 37 bps lower than 9:30 am yesterday: the 6.0 coupon -17 bps and 22 bps lower than 9:30 am yesterday. Stock index futures, closed at 9:15 am, DJIA +53, NASDAQ +1, S&P +8. There was no cash market today in stocks.

With today’s employment report the idea the Fed may pass on a rate increase on May 3rd has been shaken. With the thin trade the reactions today may be excessive due to few participants.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 3.38% +7 bp

5 year note: 3.47% +9 bp

2 year note: 3.96% +14 bp

30 year bond: 3.59% +4 bp

Libor Rates: 1 month 4.90%; 3 month 5.198%; 6 month 5.237%; 1 year 5.126% (4/6/23)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.11 -17 bp (-22 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.00 -23 bp (-37 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.75 -27 bp (-53 b p from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.8703 -$0.0056

Dollar/Yen: 132.21 +0.42 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0899 -$0.0022

Dollar Index: 102.13 +0.30

Gold: $2,023.70 -$11.90

Bitcoin: 27,891 -91

Crude Oil: $80.46 -$0.15

DJIA: futures +53

NASDAQ: futures +1

S&P 500: futures +8

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.