April 12th, 2024 8:56 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Some relief this morning, the 10 year note at 8:30 am ET -9 bps from yesterday, MBS prices +20 bps from yesterday. The improvement a technical bounce after the run-up this week.
March import and export prices at 8:30 am were better than estimates; month/month imports +0.4%, up from 0.3% in February, year/year +0.4% after falling o.8%. Exports month/month expected +0.3% down from +0.7%, year/year -1.4% from -2.0%. No reaction to the report.
Today begins the long earnings season with big banks; JPMorgan Chase & Co. missed estimates for net interest income. Citigroup Inc.’s profit topped analysts’ estimates as corporations tapped markets for financing and consumers leaned on credit cards — signs that a prolonged period of elevated rates will benefit big banks.
Inflation isn’t declining as the Fed wants or has been expecting, rate cut forecasts were extended this week on increasing inflation reported on March CPI data on Wednesday. Last Friday the 10 year note yield closed the week at 4.39%, this morning the yield at 9 am 4.50% +11 bps, the 2 year note this week at 9 am 4.88% from 4.75% last Friday.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -226, NASDAQ -128, S&P -32. The 10 year note at 4.52% - 7 bps from yesterday. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +16 bps from yesterday’s close and +3 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 10 am the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for mid-month showed some weakness in consumer sentiment.
Some of the improvement today can be contributed to the increasing tensions in the mid-east, Iran threatening to attack Israel after it killed key Iranian generals in Syria. The US at odds with Israel but saying this morning the US will act if Iran does attack.
Gold prices continue to climb this morning.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.49% -10 bp
5 year note: 4.53% -11 bp
2 year note: 4.89% -9 bp
30 year bond: 4.59% -9 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 99.84 +16 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 101.47 +12 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 98.86 +24 b p (+12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yuan: $7.2375 unch
Dollar/Yen: 152.97 -0.31 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0638 -$0.0089
Dollar Index: 105.97 +0.69
Gold: $2,419.10 +$46.40
Bitcoin: 69,680 -780
Crude Oil: $87.32 +$2.30
DJIA: 38,214 -245
NASDAQ: 16,317 -126
S&P 500: 5167-32
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.