CHM Blog

Both rates and stocks began the day with little change. Nothing on the calendar today, this week is about inflation and possibly a final agreement in markets about what the fed will do at the December meeting and beyond. The calendar is packed with data after the dearth last week, leaving it up the fed officials to speak all week with, as usual no consensus about the economy or potential rate increases. At 8 am ET the 10 year note yield was unchanged at 4.62%, overnight the range from 4.67% to 4.62%. Today no data, setting up for inflation beginning tomorrow.

Yesterday Morgan Stanley saying the Fed will start lowering rates next June, and continue lowering into 2024, down to 2.375% by the end of 2025 from the current 5.25% today. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, sees the first 25-basis-point reduction in the fourth quarter of 2024, followed by one cut per quarter through mid-2026 — a total of 175 basis points, with rates settling at a 3.5%-3.75% target range. That’s according to a 2024 outlook from economist David Mericle, also published Sunday.

CNBC announced a new measurement for retail sales saying its more accurate than the Census Bureau’s data. A joint product of CNBC and the National Retail Federation based on data from Affinity Solutions, a leading consumer purchase insights company. The data differs from the Census Bureau’s retail sales report as it is the result of actual consumer purchases, while the Census relies on survey data.

Last Friday Moody’s Investor Services shot another round across the bow of the continuing debt increases, lowering US credit rating from stable to negative. Continual concern about fiscal spending and increasing deficits, mixing in the increasing Washington gridlock. Moody’s sees expected fiscal deterioration, an increasing debt burden and political standoffs on fiscal and debt issues. The ratings agency reaffirmed America’s credit rating at AAA, the highest level. This comes three months after Fitch lowered the U.S. long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to AA+ from AAA.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -45, NASDAQ -56, S&P -13. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.67% +3 bps. FNMA 6.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -20 bps from Friday’s close and -17 bps from 9:30 am Friday.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.68% +4 bp

5 year note: 4.71% +3 bp

2 year note: 5.06% +1 bp

30 year bond: 4.80% +4 bp

30 year FNMA 7.0: @9:30 am 101.49 -16 bp (-24 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 100.31 -20 bp (-17 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 98.34 -29 bp (-54 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 99.13 -16 bp (-37 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2911 +0.0015

Dollar/Yen: 151.89 +0.37 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0673 -$0.0013

Dollar Index: 105.93 +0.07

Gold: $1939.40 +$1.70

Bitcoin: 36,659 -523

Crude Oil: $77.72 +$0.58

DJIA: 34,268 -19

NASDAQ: 13,713 -84

S&P 500: 4398 -17

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.