January 4th, 2024 9:56 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
MBS prices yesterday +11 bps. This morning the 10 year note yield began at 3.98% +6 bps and MBS prices down 18 bps from yesterday’s close.
ADP reported December private jobs up 164K with forecasts of 115K. Tomorrow the December employment report, the consensus estimates for NFP jobs +158K and private jobs +127K. Once again holidays are difficult to take at face value.
Weekly jobless claims declined, expected at 217K reported at 202K down 18K from the previous week; the 4-week average 207.75K down from 212.50K the prior week. Continuing claims declined 31K to 1.86 million.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +57, NASDAQ-58, S&P -4. 10 year at 9:30 am 3.99% +7 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -19 bps from yesterday’s close but +17 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
The December PMI services index reported at 9:45 am, expected at 51.3 reported at 51.4.
The 10 year note once again testing 4.00% a critical level for us. A break above 4.00% on a close will project the 10 year to increase to 4.05%, possibly 4.10%.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 3.99% +7 bp
5 year note: 3.96% +5 bp
2 year note: 4.37% +3 bp
30 year bond: 4.14% +6 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.23 -19 bp (+ 17 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.29 -8 bp (+17 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.24 -18 bp (+13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yuan: $7.1539 +$0.0004
Dollar/Yen: 144.81 +1.53 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0944 +$0.0022
Dollar Index: 102.51 +0.01
Gold: $2,04.71 +$4.30
Bitcoin: 42,782 -170
Crude Oil: $72.69 -$0.01
DJIA: 37,598 +167
NASDAQ: 14,551 -41
S&P 500: 4711 +6
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.