CHM Blog

Today has nothing to offer ahead of inflation data tomorrow and Thursday. The only data today was the NFIB small business optimism index, expected at 91.7 from 91.9 as reported 91.3; gets very little attention. This afternoon Treasury will auction $35B of 10 year notes (9 years 11 months).

Yesterday the yield curve unchanged from 30s to 2s, likely the same today.

Most of the analysts we track continue to have a positive view and still believe there is more to come. Its concerning that consumers are increasingly using high interest rate credit cards, mortgage rates increasing and crude oil on a rampage higher. The money supply (M2) is declining, and the optimism may be extreme. Yesterday Jamie Dimon JPMorgan Chase commented that consumer balance sheets and rising wages are supporting the economy for now, but there are risks ahead, said Dimon, who was speaking at a financial conference in New York. His concerns include central banks reining in liquidity programs via “quantitative tightening,” the Ukraine war, and governments around the world “spending like drunken sailors,” “To say the consumer is strong today, meaning you are going to have a booming environment for years, is a huge mistake,” “I think the uncertainties out there ahead of us are still very large, and very dangerous,” Dimon said.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -84, NASDAQ -64, S&P -16. 10 year at 9:30 am unchanged at 4.28%. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -6 bps from yesterday’s close and -1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 1 pm Treasury will auction $35B of 10 year notes.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.29% +1 bp

5 year note: 4.43% +1 bp

2 year note: 5.03% +3 bp

30 year bond: 4.37% unch

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 99.76 -6 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 98.27 +6 bp (+15 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 98.69 +1 bp (+20 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2930 +$0.0033

Dollar/Yen: 147.16 +0.57

Dollar/Euro: $1.0717 -$0.0032

Dollar Index: 104.81 +0.24

Gold: $1933.60 -$13.60

Bitcoin: 26,213 +1127

Crude Oil: $8875 +$1.46

DJIA: 34,605 -59

NASDAQ: 13,908 -10

S&P 500: 4478 -9

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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