CHM Blog

Volatility overnight slowed compared to earlier this week, yesterday the key 10 year dropped to 3.40%, the strong technical resistance level, at the end of the session the 10 closed at 3.47%. Overnight the high rate 3.52%, at 8 am ET 3.44%. Worries continue but are fading a little on news Credit Suisse found a savior at the Swiss National Bank that injected $54B and a pledge to buy back $3.2B of debt. An ongoing situation but the huge fears that grabbed the financial worlds this week appears to be easing somewhat.

At 8:30 am this morning: weekly jobless claims were expected at 205K from 212k, claims fell to 192K down 20K; 4 week average 196.50 from 197.25K. Feb housing starts and permits much stronger than forecasts, annual starts expected at 1.315 mil increased 1.450 mil; annual permits were thought to be 1.340 mil but increased 1.524 mil. The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index was thought to be -15.8 from -24.3 in Feb, as reported the index -23.2.

Also, at 8:30 am Feb import and export prices. Imports were expected -0.2% reported -0.1% m/m, year/year -1.1% against +0.2%. Export prices thought to be -0.3% were +0.2% m/m, year/year -0.8% from +2.2% in Jan.

The ECB surprised by increasing its key rate by 50 bps. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and TD Securities Inc. who say it’s time to close out long positions in Treasuries as the Federal Reserve may still tighten policy next week. “We think the Fed isn’t done and we continue to look for another 25-basis point hike next week, and a final hike in May,” JPMorgan analysts led by Jay Barry wrote in a note to clients. “We suggest taking profits on the remaining portion of a long five-year note trade from 4.21% entry at the market.” TD Securities closed a 10-year Treasuries trade initiated in February when the yield was at 3.77%, after the rate dropped through 3.46% this week according to a report on Bloomberg.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -210, NASDAQ -57, S&P -24. 10 year at 9:30 am at its chart resistance at 3.40%. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +9 bps and +3 bps from 9:30 am yesterday, the 5.5 coupon +14 bps and +11 bps from 9:30 am yesterday. By 10 am 3.40% held again, MBS prices at 10 am -8 bps, the 10 3.43% -3 bps.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr. note: 3.43% -4 bp

5 yr. note: 3.53% -3 bp

2 Yr. note: 3.96% +8 bp

30 yr. bond: 3.64% -1 bp

Libor Rates: 1 mo. 4.709%; 3 mo. 4.907%; 6 mo. 4.834%; 1 yr. 4.728% (03/15/23)

30 yr. FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.83 +9 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 yr. FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.83 +14 bp (+11 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 yr. GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.03 +6 bp (+20 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.8981 -$0.0088

Dollar/Yen: 132.36 -1.07 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.00611 +$0.0033

Dollar Index: 104.47 +0.18

Gold: $1931.40 +$0.10

Bitcoin: 24,870 +499

Crude Oil: $66.75 -$0.86

DJIA: 31,705 -169

NASDAQ: 11,452 +19

S&P 500: 3885 -8

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.