CHM Blog

The 10 year note at 8:30 am ET improved from overnight levels, the rate at 8:30 4.64% +2 bps from Friday but down from 4.67% at 6 am.

The run to safety over the Israel/Iran conflict is slowing. Both countries breathing a little bit better and so too global markets. Last week the 10 year note, driver for rates, traded in a very narrow range from a high close at 4.65% to a low close at 4.59%.

Two keys for rates now, there is still tensions in the mid-east although not likely any peace will emerge, inflation increased earlier this month when March CPI and PPI were released, sending the 10 year note yield from 4.35% to 4.55% in just two days. Inflation still not understandable within the Fed although the two reports rattled Powell and most other Fed officials, now saying any rate cuts may have to wait until very late this year.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +167 after falling 211 last Friday, NASDAQ +102 after declining 320, S&P +24 from -43 last Friday. The 10 at 9:30 am 4.64% +2 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 -4 bps from Friday’s close and -1 bp from 9:30 am Friday.

Looking for a quiet session today, no data points. The keys this week, Treasury auctions over the next three days and PCE inflation on Friday. Short term technical indicators remain bearish. No Fed officials this week ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.64% +2 bp

5 year note: 4.67% unch

2 year note: 4.98% -2 bp

30 year bond: 4.74% +3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 99.30 -4 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 101.09 -1 bp (unch from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 98.10 -8 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2439 +$0.0041

Dollar/Yen: 154.76 +0.11 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0637 -$0.0020

Dollar Index: 106.34 +0.19

Gold: $2,349.30 -$64.50

Bitcoin: 66,073 +1519

Crude Oil: $82.08 -$1.01

DJIA: 38,076 +77

NASDAQ: 15,410 +128

S&P 500: 4996 +28

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.