August 25th, 2025 10:33 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Markets rallied on Powell’s speech last Friday, the keynotes were he almost admitted a rate cut at the FOMC meeting next month and his comments that the Fed may have to reconsider its polices in light of inflation well above its 2.0% target. The employment sector based on recent data is slowing, although at 4.2% is still within the Fed’s comfort range for the moment. Weekly jobless claims increased last week more than expected and continuing claims continue to increase. The Fed’s key inflation reading will hit on Friday, the estimates are generally unchanged from June.
Stock indexes jumped Friday, the DJIA +846, NASDAQ +396. Interest rates declined, the 10 year note down 6 bps, the 2 down 8 bps and MBS prices increased 29 bps from Thursday. This morning no follow-through, the 10 year note at 8:30 am +2 bps, stock index futures the DJIA -139, NASDAQ -90.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -90, NASDAQ -39, S&P -10. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.29% +3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -6 bps from Friday’s close and -1 bp from 10:45 am Friday’s 23 bp gain.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.29% +3 bp
5 year note: 3.79% +2 bp
2 year note: 3.73% +3 bp
30 year bond: 4.91% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.96 -6 bp (-1 bp from 10:45 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 103.43 -9 bp (unch from 10:45 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.85 -6 bp (+2 bp from 10:45 am Friday)
Dollar/Yen: 147.41 +0.47 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1705 -$0.0013
Dollar Index: 97.92 +0.20
Gold: $3,411.40 -$7.10
Bitcoin: 112,213 -1366
Crude Oil: $64.37 +$0.71
DJIA: 45,519 -113
NASDAQ: 21,479 -17
S&P 500: 6455 -12
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.