CHM Blog

At 8:30 am ET this morning weekly jobless claims were estimated at 230K, reported a 229K while the prior week revised from 235K to 234K. The prior week claims were the highest in eight weeks, continuing jobless claims fell by 7,000 from the near three-year high on the prior week to 1,954,000. The results do not reflect an accelerating deterioration in the US labor market but held the lingering concern of softening amid slower hiring.

Also at 8:30 am, the preliminary Q2 GDP, the second look after the advance release last month, the advance release showed GDP +3.0% this report expected at 3.1% but reported at 3.3%. Q2 personal consumption expenditures expected at +1.4% increased 1.6%. After Q1 GDP declined 0.1% the increase is implying the economy remains resilient, a great headline but mainly due to stronger consumer spending and investment, though partly offset by lower government spending and higher imports. Growth was driven by strong household spending and fewer imports. Declines in business investment and exports held back even stronger gains. The Q2 price deflator remained unchanged from the advance release at +2.0%. The current Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow that fluctuates with each key economic release is presently forecasting Q3 GDP at 2.2%.

The initial reaction to the two 8:30 am releases did not have an impact on rates; at 9 am the 10 year note traded unchanged from yesterday, MBS prices at 9 am unchanged from yesterday.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened quietly +46, NASDAQ +48, S&P +8. 10 year at 9:30 am unchanged at 4.24%. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -1 bp from yesterday’s close and +6 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am July pending home sales, expected at +0.2% from -0.8% in June, sales declined 0.4%.

At 1 pm Treasury will auction $44B of 7 year notes; yesterday the 5 year auction was weak with continued less demand from foreign investors.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.23% -1 bp

5 year note: 3.71% unch

2 year note: 3.64% +2 bp

30 year bond: 4.90% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.14 -4 bp (+6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 103.62 -2 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.94 -6 bp (+6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 147.19 -0.21 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1665 +$0.0027

Dollar Index: 98.02 -0.21

Gold: $3,460.30 +$11.70

Bitcoin: 113,053 954

Crude Oil: $63.88 -$0.27

DJIA: 45,481 -84

NASDAQ: 21,541 -49

S&P 500: 6470 -11

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.