August 19th, 2025 12:49 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
No news overnight as the markets wait for what Powell has to say Friday morning, in the meantime there isn’t anything on the calendar that concerns traders and investors. The Ukraine/Russia cease fire talks are continuing although there is little likelihood of any significant announcements. It is all about what the Fed may do now. How Powell frames it in his speech is what traders are awaiting for. The consensus remains for a cut next month but as usual, the closer markets get to reality the less sure they become. Powell faces inflation well above the Fed’s 2.0% target (2.8% now) and the employment market remaining firm.
July housing starts and permits at 8:30 am ET, starts exploded much higher than was expected at 1.428 million against estimates of 1.290 million and June starts revised from 1.321 million to 1.358 million. Starts were carried by housing with five or more units for a second month (11.6% to 470K), faster than starts of one unit (2.8% to 939K). Starts at a 5 month high increasing 5.2%. Permits thought to be 1.390 million reported at 1.354 million. Permits fell by 2.8%, the lowest level since June 2020. Permits for buildings with five or more units dropped by 9.9% to an annualized rate of 430K, while single-family permits increased by 0.5% to 870K.
Not withstanding some unexpected news there is little likelihood anything will change much until Powell speaks on Friday morning. There isn’t any scheduled economic releases this week that can sway markets. The next key inflation data is a week from this Friday when July PCE data hits.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +74, NASDAQ -58, S& -9. 10 year 4.32% -2 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +1 bp from yesterday’s close and -6 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.31% -3 bp
5 year note: 3.83% -3 bp
2 year note: 3.75% -2 bp
30 year bond: 4.91% -2 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.74 +1 bp (-6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 103.35 -2 bp (-8 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.64 -3 bp (-10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 147.71 -0.17 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1675 +0.0013
Dollar Index: 98.08 -0.09
Gold: $3,383.30 +$5.30
Bitcoin: 115,160 -1198
Crude Oil: $62.71 -$0.71
DJIA: 45,057 +145
NASDAQ: 21,538 -92
S&P 500: 6444 -5
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.