August 27th, 2025 10:11 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was clear; the Fed is likely to cut their key rate next month but future cuts are dependent on inflation and employment. Powell commented that inflation is currently at 2.9% and employment is still at 4.2%, a respectable level. The bellwether 10 year note over the last two weeks has ranged from 4.33% to 4.26%.
This morning, the report on weekly MBA mortgage applications for last week declined 0.5%. The purchase index increased 2.2% but re-fis slipped 3.5%. “Prospective buyers appear to be less sensitive to rates at these levels and are more active, bolstered by more inventory and cooling home-price growth in many parts of the country,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist.
This afternoon at 1 pm Treasury will sell $70 Billion in 5 year notes. Yesterday there was solid demand for the 2 year note.
There are no more economic releases today. Tomorrow the weekly jobless claims are expected at 230 thousand, 5 thousand less than last week. Friday we get July inflation data from the Bureau of Economic Analysists.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.28% unch
5 year note: 3.75%unch
2 year note: 3.65% +1 bp
30 year bond: 4.92% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.08 -3 bp (+4 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 103.58 -2 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.00 unch (+10 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 148.11 +0.68 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1585 -$0.0057
Dollar Index: 98.60 +0.38
Gold: $3,427.70 -$5.30
Bitcoin: 111,269 +128
Crude Oil: $63.47 +$0.22
DJIA: 45,488 +70
NASDAQ: 21,510 -34
S&P 500: 6466 unch
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.