October 4th, 2023 12:11 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The 10 closed yesterday at 4.80%, overnight the note increased to 4.89% before relief, by 8 am ET 4.75% -5 bps. MBS prices began better, at 8 am the 6.0 30 year coupon traded +29 bps.
At 8:15 am ADP reported private jobs were expected +150K, reported +89K; the lowest increase in jobs since Sept, 2021. The government on Friday is expected to report that 170,000 new jobs were created in September, including new hires in government. ADP’s report excludes government employment. ADP data and the BLS data vary a lot, so we won’t take the lower jobs seriously. The Fed should like the weak jobs but officials still warning the possibility of another rate increase before calling it quits.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +65 after declining 431 yesterday, NASDAQ +42 from -248 yesterday, S&P +9 from -59 yesterday. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +27 bps from yesterday’s close and -22 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.
Crude oil this morning down over $2.67; oil officials from Russia and Saudi Arabia confirmed that output will remain at a reduced level through the end of the year.
At 9:45 am the Sept final PMI, manufacturing index expected at 50.1, service index expected at 50.2; manufacturing 50.2 services 50.1. Both at pivotal levels between contraction and growth.
At 10 am the Sept ISM services sector index expected at 53.5 reported at 53.6, above 50 suggests expansion. August factory orders thought to be +0.2% increased 1.2% from -2.1% in July.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.78% -2 bp
5 year note: 4.78% -2 bp
2 year note: 5.11% -7 bp
30 year bond: 4.89% -3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 99.70 +28 bp (-16 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 97.67 +27 bp (-22 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 96.07 +39 bp (-11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yuan: $7.1973 unch
Dollar/Yen: 148.94 -0.09 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0512 +$0.0046
Dollar Index: 106.68 -0.32
Gold: $1836.60 -$4.90
Bitcoin: 27,453 +56
Crude Oil: $86.55 -$2.72
DJIA: 32,933 -69
NASDAQ: 13,076 +17
S&P 500: 4227 -3
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.