CHM Blog

At 9 am ET the 10 year note +3 bps, MBS prices unchanged. Last week the 10 yield declined 12 bps and MBS prices increased 63 bps. There weren’t any key data points last week but this week has a lot to digest. Inflation data on Friday the key this week. There was little news overnight, and not much today other than February new home sales. Two consumer measurements this week, Conference Board’s consumer confidence tomorrow and Thursday the University of Michigan sentiment index.

The main event this week is on Friday when February PCE inflation data is released. The rub though, the bond market will be closed on Good Friday and there is an early close Thursday afternoon. J Powell will speak on Friday at 11:30 am at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, San Francisco, California.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -60, NASDAQ -88, S&P -15.10 year note at 9:30 am 4.23% +3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -1 bp from Friday’s close and -2 bps from 9:30 am Friday morning. Haven’t seen morning MBS prices yet today but bet they are lower than what the market is trading.

At 10 am February new home sales, expected at 765K, increased 662K. Details this afternoon.

At 1 pm Treasury will begin the week’s auctions with $66B of 2 year notes.

Not much news today, look for a quiet day in the markets. The attitude changed last week with the Fed making it clear it is very likely to cut rates three times this year. That was the market view early this month, traders betting on cuts; then inflation increased. The 10 year note increased from 4.05% to 4.32% in less than three weeks before last week’s FOMC and all remarks from Fed officials including Powell and comments from the ECB, BofE, and BofJ that central banks are on the same page looking to lowering rates soon.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.24% +4 bp

5 year note: 4.23% +4 bp

2 year note: 4.63% +3 bp

30 year bond: 4.42% +4 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.93 -1 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.18 unch (-1 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.80 -4 bp (-4 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2110 -$0.0180

Dollar/Yen: 151.26 -0.20 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0836 +$0.0026

Dollar Index: 104.19 +0.76

Gold: $2,179.50 +$19.50

Bitcoin: 67,579 +1739

Crude Oil: $81.61 +$0.98

DJIA: 39,395 -81

NASDAQ: 16,377 -52

S&P 500: 5221 -13

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.