CHM Blog

At 8:30 am ET this morning Q4 GDP was thought to be at 3.2% but increased to 3.4%, driven higher on strong consumer spending. Weekly jobless claims +210K against 213K expected, continuing claims increased 24K to 1.82 million.

Yesterday evening Fed Governor Waller said maybe it is too soon to cut rates. Waller called recent inflation figures “disappointing” and said he wants to see “at least a couple months of better inflation data” before cutting. The title to his speech, “There is No Rush” you get what you expect. Fed officials do this a lot, one says cuts are coming while another tempers optimism.

The bond market will close at 2 pm this afternoon ahead of key inflation data tomorrow (Good Friday), also tomorrow J Powell is scheduled to make remarks. Recall that we expected the fed to relax on the 2.0% hard target on inflation, his recent comments suggest he is more concerned about the economy than ramming 2.0% inflation; we get the same from the ECB’ Lagarde and the Fed’ recent projections, 2.5% may be sufficient to cut rates. Also, tomorrow SF Fed’s Mary Daly, neither Powell nor Daly will have any bombs to drop. Swaps contracts now show an implied probability of about 60% for a June rate reduction.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +59, NASDAQ -20, ,S&P unchanged. The 10 year 4.22% +3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -16 bps from yesterday’s close and -10 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 9:45 am March Chicago purchasing managers index estimates at 46.0 from 44.0 in February; the index continues to fall, as released the index 41.4 implying manufacturing is still soft.

At 10 am final March University of Michigan consumer sentiment index thought to be unchanged from mid-month at 76.5. Consumer sentiment and the other components better that forecasts confirming consumers are riding the wave.

Pending home sales, expected +1.3% increased 1.6%, the index at 75.6 from 77.4.

Tomorrow February personal income and spending and PCE inflation.

At 10 am MBS prices improved from -16 bps to -7 bps. The bond market will close at 2 pm.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.20% +1 bp

5 year note: 4.21% +2 bp

2 year note: 4.61% +3 bp

30 year bond: 4.35% -1 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.88 -16 bp (-10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.21 -1 bp 9+3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.92 -22 bp (-7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2282 +$0.0006

Dollar/Yen: 151.24 -0.09 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0813 -$0.0015

Dollar Index: 104.40 +0.05

Gold: $2,229.00 +$16.30

Bitcoin: 70,881 +2240

Crude Oil: $82.39 +$1.04

DJIA: 39,760 unch

NASDAQ: 16,387 -12

S&P 500: 5251 +3

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.