CHM Blog

Over night the 10 year note increased 2 bps to 4.17%, by 8:15 am ET the note down 1 bps. ADP reported February private jobs at +140K against forecasts of 150K, an increase of 29K jobs from the prior week.

Powell begins his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee at 10 am. His prepared text saying it will likely be appropriate to begin lower borrowing costs “at some point this year,” but made clear they’re not ready yet. Stepping back, Powell is not likely to change his recent remarks that he wants more data before pulling the trigger to begin dialing back rates. The present consensus is the first rate cut will happen at the June FOMC meeting, but there are many new inflation releases between now and then.

The March FOMC meeting on March 20th will release the Fed’s quarterly updates on inflation, employment, and economic outlook.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +189, NASDAQ +158, S&P +34. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.12% -23 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +13 bps from yesterday’s close and +18 bps from 9:30 am yesterday. Stock indexes refuse to buckle, more analysts worrying about being excessive. There is an interesting pattern recently; yesterday the indexes declined (DJIA -405, NASDAQ -268, S&P -52), every time we see a big fall in the indexes the following day has been a strong up day.

At 10 am January JOLTS job openings were expected to have declined to 8.90 million from revised 8.889 million (originally 9.026 million). Openings reported at 8.863 million. No immediate reaction, but less openings is a plus for rates, employers not hiring as much.

At 2 pm the Fed’s Beige Book, not likely to have impact after Powell’s comments.

The benchmark 10 year note continues to decline, good news for rates. The note now trading below its 200 day average, the 20 and 40 day averages. The relative strength index is in positive territory, below the 50 pivot.

PRICES @ 10:05 AM

10 year note: 4.11% -5 bp

5 year note: 4.10% -3 bp

2 year note: 4.54% -2 bp

30 year bond: 4.26% -3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.80 +13 bp (+28 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 101.94 +5 bp (+10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.73 +12 bp (+18 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.1985 +$0.0015

Dollar/Yen: 149.35 -0.70 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0888 +$0.0029

Dollar Index: 103.50 -0.30

Gold: $2,152.00 +$10.10

Bitcoin: 66,293 +4384

Crude Oil: $79.53 +$1.38

DJIA: 38,729 +144

NASDAQ: 16,025 +85

S&P 500: 5106 +27

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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