March 1st, 2023 9:47 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Yesterday the 10 year note traded the entire range from 3.97% to 3.90% settling at 3.92% unchanged on the day. MBS prices -14 bps, unchanged from 9:30 am ET yesterday morning. This morning the 10 began +3 bps at 3.95% and MBS prices at 9 am –14 bps from yesterday’s 14 bp decline.
What’s the true story about job growth? In the WSJ this morning, an article saying private job growth estimates are not matching the JOLTS and other government data. ZipRecruiter Inc. and Recruit Holdings Co., two large online recruiting companies, say their data show the number of job postings is declining more than Labor Department reports of job openings. One key for the fed’s push to increase rates is the recent increases in job openings, if private data becomes the go to for accurate jobs data the Fed may have slightly less fear that inflation in wages isn’t as spooky as we have been hearing.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -56, NASDAQ -4, S&P -9. 10 year at 9:30 am 3.96% +3 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -12 bps and -12 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
Key data at 9:45 am and 10 am. Feb PMI expected at 47.8, the index fell to 47.3, the 5th month in a row indicating contraction. China, Italy, and Spain the only countries with PMI indexes over 50.
At 10 Feb ISM manufacturing index expected at 48.0 from 47.4, the index reported at 47.7 the 4th month in a row of declines.
Jan constriction spending expected +0.2% declined 0.1%; year/year +5.7% down from 8.7% in Dec.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 yr note: 3.99% +7 bp
5 yr note: 4.28% +9 bp
2 Yr note: 4.90% +8 bp
30 yr bond: 3.97% +5 bp
Libor Rates: 1 mo 4.669%; 3 mo 4.971%; 6 mo 5.263%; 1 yr 5.682% (2/28/23)
30 yr FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.91 -12 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 yr FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.52 -14 bp (-11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 yr GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.03 -17 bp (-16 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yuan: $6.8692 -$0.0642
Dollar/Yen: 136.00 -0.22 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0677 +$0.0100
Dollar Index: 104.37 -0.50
Gold: $1847.90 +$11.20
Bitcoin: 23,672 +513
Crude Oil: $77.01 -$0.04
DJIA: 32,580 -77
NASDAQ: 11,380 -75
S&P 500: 3947 -24
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.