March 6th, 2023 9:15 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The 10 year note at 9 am ET 3.91% -5 bps and MBS prices +16 bps. Tomorrow and Wednesday Jerome Powell will testify at the senate banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee. Treasury will auction 10s and 30s Wednesday and Thursday. The Feb employment report on Friday.
Powell isn’t likely to deviate from other Fed officials. Recent data has upped the ante on how high the Fed is prepared to go as inflation slows but remains well above what the Fed wants to see. Congress will press him about the potential damage to the economy and whether the Fed is concerned about it. “The committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective,” the Fed said in its semi-annual report to Congress released Friday. Officials expect that “ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive.”
The Jan employment report rocked the markets when reported a month ago, job growth exploded, NFP jobs were thought to be +160K, as reported +517K, private jobs also blew well above forecasts at +443K. Was it an anomaly or is job growth running much hotter than economists thought? Job growth revisions are a strong possibility and Feb jobs forecast more reasonable. This week we’ll hear a lot of opinions about the job market.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened quietly, +17, NASDAQ +53, S&P +8. 10 year 3.92% -4 bps. MBSs not much improvement, 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 +2 bps and +14 bps from 9:30 am Friday, the 5.5 coupon +5 bps and +24 bp from 9:30 am Friday.
At 10 am Jan factory orders, thought to be down 1.8%, declined 1.6%.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 yr note: 3.94% -2 bp
5 yr note: 4.23% -3 bp
2 Yr note: 4.87% unch
30 yr bond: 3.87% -1 bp
Libor Rates: 1 mo 4.709%; 3 mo 4.984%; 6 mo 5.316%; 1 yr 5.694% (3/3/23)
30 yr FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.06 +2 bp (+14 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 yr FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.69 +5 bp (+24 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 yr GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.33 +5 bp (+23 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yuan: $6.9320 +$0.0246
Dollar/Yen: 135.95 +0.10 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0667 +$0.0032
Dollar Index: 104.41 -0.11
Gold: $1858.90 +$4.30
Bitcoin: 22,432 -50
Crude Oil: $79.03 -$0.65
DJIA: 33,440 +50
NASDAQ: 11,737 +48
S&P 500: 4058 +13
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.