CHM Blog

‘Show me the money!’

When actor Cuba Gooding Jr. yelled that line in the movie Jerry Maguire, no one knew first-time homebuyers would have their own version of it in 2026. In this case, the line is, “show me the price cut.”

Realtor.com's Anna D'Amico looks at a new Neighbors Bank survey of people shopping for a first home, or who bought one in the past year, and finds buyers who are feeling sharper and more confident. They're also waiting on sellers to meet them partway.

When asked which seller concession would most boost their confidence, 40% of respondents named a price reduction. Prices are inching that way. The national median list price in September was $419,250, according to Realtor.com data, down 1.4% from a year earlier and the 11th straight month of annual declines. Buyers want more than slow progress, though, and they're willing to ask. Some 86% feel comfortable offering below asking price, and 57% have walked away from a home because they felt they had the leverage to do it.

A lower price isn't the only way to save, however. Up to 83% of buyers would accept a mortgage rate buydown from a seller or builder. Many also expect sellers to handle repairs before closing and to help with closing costs, which cuts the cash a buyer needs upfront.

Rates are still the biggest obstacle. About 70% of respondents say current rates make every option feel out of reach. Neighbors Bank points out that the rate in the headlines isn't the one a buyer actually gets. Credit history, loan type, down payment, and seller concessions all affect it. Waiting for rates to fall carries a risk too, since prices can climb in the meantime, or a flood of buyers can show up the moment rates drop. More than a quarter of first-time buyers say that's their biggest worry.

Broker Bob Curtis, tells Realtor.com that trying to time the market rarely works. "Don't buy a home because you think rates are about to go up, and don't postpone buying solely because you think rates are about to come down," he says. "Buy when you find the right home and can comfortably afford the total cost of owning it."

To get there, buyers are widening the search. Nearly 90% are open to buying outside a major metro, and many are looking at different neighborhoods and smaller homes. St. Louis-based realtor and investor Ben Mizes sees the shift among his clients. "Rather than spending their budgets on the best house and backyard, they are looking farther away at smaller houses. They are doing more research on houses that can be improved with minor changes," he says.

He goes on to say that many people are deciding that they can live with a house that doesn't have all of the ideal features rather than saving to buy a house for another 10 years. Once they find a place, Mizes says, asking the seller for concessions is working for many of them.

Confidence does have its limits. About 69% of respondents say every homebuying decision feels too risky to get wrong. Even so, they're negotiating, compromising, and walking away when the numbers don't work, which is about as smart as a first-time buyer can be in this market.

So yes. Show them the money.

Realtor, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +6 bps last week. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

These are the three things that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Inflation, 2) The Fed and 3) Oil.

1) Inflation: We will get both CPI and PPI this week with the focus on CPI which is expected to see the headline rise from 0.4% to 0.6% on a MOM basis. The hotter this reading is, the worse it will be for rates (and vice versa).

2) The Fed: We will get the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday which is prepared 2 weeks before the next FOMC meeting. And Friday begins the Fed's media blackout period so all Fed speeches this week will get a lot of attention.

3) Oil: Generally oil prices moderated and fell last week which kept MBS moving sideways. MBS are less sensitive to oil prices now compared to a month ago but its still a factor. Its just that $1 moves are not usually as impactful as they once were but $2 to $3 moves are still impactful.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets have been under steady pressure. Volatility has started at moderate levels and could go higher later this week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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