October 16th, 2026 10:06 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Bond markets were volatile yesterday.
This morning Fed chief Warsh saying the global shift toward tighter monetary policy as a common fight on prices; “a synchronous tightening in monetary policy in most places around the world,” which means “there’s no free riders.” Global public debt is on pace to exceed 100% of the world’s GDP, a level last breached in the aftermath of World War II.
Traders see a 72.3% chance for the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the October 27-28th meeting, according to CME FedWatch, while the majority expect a 25 basis point hike at the December meeting.
September import and export prices this morning better than anticipated. Month/month imports expected +0.6% increased 1.1%, year/year +8.1% from 6.7% in August. Exports month/month expected +0.9% increased 2.2%, year/year +11.9% from 9.3% in August.
Industrial production rose 0.7% month/month in September, the most in five months and more than market expectations of 0.4%. Capacity utilization also improved, reaching 76.9% in September. Despite the monthly increase, the rate remained 2.5 percentage points below its long-term average for 1972–2025.
2026 federal deficit $1.965 trillion, total debt $40.18 trillion.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 5.09% +1 bp
5 year note: 4.89% -1 bp
2 year note: 4.73% -1 bp
30 year bond: 5.42% +1 bp
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 101.13 -12 bp (-26 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 98.79 -19 bp (-38 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.5: @9:30 an 100.86 +8 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 157.87 -0.12 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1256 +$0.0034
Dollar Index: 101.70 -0.36
Gold: $4,196 +$26.00
Bitcoin: 81,756 -544
Crude Oil: $98.12 +$0.17
DJIA: 52,487 +309
NASDAQ: 26,527 -186
S&P 500: 7740 -4
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.