October 7th, 2026 12:23 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The 10 year note began the day at 5.35%, +7 bps after dipping 3 bps yesterday crude oil at 9 am ET +$0.40.
Weekly MBA mortgage applications continue to decline, -4.2% from the previous week. Applications to refinance a loan fell by 7.5% from the previous week, while purchase applications declined by 2.1%.
News continues to headline oil prices, but that isn’t all of it. Crude oil prices are high but the reality is oil prices are well down from their highs a month ago. The Fed will increase the FF rate this year, likely in December; Warsh wants inflation down from current 3.4% to 2.0%, a very high mountain to climb.
At 1 pm Treasury will sell $39B of 10s, demand will get attention.
At 2 pm FOMC minutes.
At 3 pm August consumer credit.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 5.33% +4 bp (down from 5.36% at 9 am)
5 year note: 5.06% +3 bp
2 year note: 4.80% unch
30 year bond: 5.71% +5 bp
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 100.26 -32 bp (-25 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 97.60 -45 bp (-35 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 100.20 -50 bp (-21 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 158.29 +0.18 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1178 -$0.0083
Dollar Index: 102.41 +0.57
Gold: $4,109.20 +$77.90
Bitcoin: 83,061 -2556
Crude Oil: $90.90 +$1.46
DJIA: 51,510 -506
NASDAQ: 27,414 -186
S&P 500: 7776 -43
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.