October 15th, 2026 9:10 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
At 8:30 am ET September PPI (producer prices) were substantially higher than estimates, weekly jobless claims remained strong.
PPI month/month expected at +0.5% increased 1.3%, year/year thought to be +5.4%, increased 6.3%; the core, excluding food and energy, forecasted 0.3% month/month, increased 0.6%, its largest gain in five months, compared to 0.4% in August, year/year estimates 4.5%, increased 5.0%.
Weekly claims at 199K, +1K from the week before.
September retail sales month/month +0.8% with estimates at 0.3%, down from 1.3% in August, ex-vehicle sales +0.9% against forecasts of +0.5%.
Yesterday investors, with treasury yields high, and the stock market (NASDAQ) over-valued, made a mad rush to safer grounds. Tuesday the 10 year ended at 5.22%, the 10 year note yesterday on initial reaction to CPI inflation jumped to 5.33% before reversing. From yesterday’s high at 5.33% at 10 am, this morning at 5.06%.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 5.05% -14 bp
5 year note: 4.84% -14 bp
2 year note: 4.69% -11 bp
30 year bond: 5.40% -13 bp
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 101.39 +52 bp (+109 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 99.17 +63 bp (+130 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 101.23 +37 bp (+87 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 157.64 -.69 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1216 +$0.0056
Dollar Index: 102.07 -0.48
Gold: $4,178 +$70.00
Bitcoin: 79,789 -1923
Crude Oil: $95.93 +$0.84
DJIA: 51,749 +127
NASDAQ: 26,379 -314
S&P 500: 7680 -38
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.