CHM Blog

Realtor Market Insider November 2, 2020

November 2nd, 2020 5:32 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568

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This Week's
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(by Sigma Research)
RE Report

Permanent remote work is making many Americans rethink where they live

“WFH.” It now has an acronym all its own. "Work from home" is used to connote a stop-gap way for employers to keep their employees productive. Now? Employers are finally admitting it's all working out just fine, and employees are considering they can work from anywhere — including somewhere other than where they currently live.

NPR's Adedayo Akala reports that as coronavirus cases continue to spike and working from home seems permanent, many Americans (an astonishing 14 million to 23 million of them) intend to relocate to a different city or region as a result of telework, according to a new study released by Upwork, a freelancing platform. This was a survey conducted from Oct. 1st to the 15th using information gathered from among 20,490 Americans aged 18 and up.

"The large migration is motivated by people no longer confined to the city where their job is located," says Akala. "The pandemic has shifted many companies' view on working from home. Facebook announced plans for half of its employees to work from home permanently. The company even hired a director of remote work in September to ease the transition."

Upworks chief economist, Adam Ozimek, admits," As our survey shows, many people see remote work as an opportunity to relocate to where they want and where they can afford to live. This is an early indicator of the much larger impacts that remote work could have in increasing economic efficiency and spreading opportunity."

The study says big cities will see the largest exodus — around 20% of respondents. And because many expect remote work to continue long term, more than half are planning to relocate anywhere from 2 hours or farther away from their current home.

On the average, the United Van Lines report says nationally there is a 32% increase in moving interest compared with this time last year. "The most common reasons associated with pandemic-influenced moves were: concerns for personal and family health and well-being, desires to be closer to family, changes in employment status or work arrangement (including the ability to work remotely), and desires for lifestyle change or improvement of quality of life," says Akala. "Customers told the moving company that the pandemic made them reevaluate what was important to their family, which meant being closer to extended family and friends. Other customers said they had to widen their job search to out of state."

This Week's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market.  This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events.  When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down.  When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.  Tracking these securities real-time is critical.  For more information about the rate market, contact me directly.  I’m among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are trending sideways this morning.  Last week the MBS market improved by +34bps.  This was enough to move rates or fees lower last week. We saw moderate to high rate volatility through the week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) Central Bank, 3) Jobs

1) Geopolitical: The Electoral Presidential Election will be the main focus all week. There are many possible scenarios that the bond market and economists alike will have to reprice regardless of the outcome. Also, we have Great Britain, Germany, Italy, and others all on lock down for a month as Covid numbers run out of control.

2) Central Bank: We get our own Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement on Thursday. Usually, this happens on a Wednesday, but it's delayed due to election day. Their statement may be influenced by which party/system is the victor. We also get key Central Bank decisions out of Australia and Great Britain.

3) Jobs: It's a new month, so we get our Big Jobs Friday with Non-Farm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings. But throughout the week, we also get a steady drip of employment data with ADP Private Payrolls, Challenger Job Cuts, Initial Jobless Claims, and internal employment readings in the ISM data.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This is one of the most consequential weeks for rate markets in a very long time. We have the election Tuesday and just a ton of economic data coming out through the week. Look for volatility to spike on Wednesday, and it will likely remain throughout the week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 27 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted in:General
Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on November 2nd, 2020 5:32 PM



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