CHM Blog

Realtor Market Insider June 28, 2021

June 28th, 2021 2:24 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568


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Eviction moratoriums are extended another month

For those renters who face eviction, the CDC and Biden administration have extended one more reprieve. The ban on evictions and foreclosures set to expire this month, has now been extended until the end of July.

With some 7 million tenants currently behind on their rent, state and local courts are being encouraged to adopt anti-eviction diversion programs to help delinquent tenants stay housed and avoid legal action while the federal government tries to speed up distribution of tens of billions of dollars in emergency rental assistance.

NPR's Pam Fessler reports that in announcing the extension of the eviction moratorium, the CDC said that the COVID-19 "pandemic has presented a historic threat to the nation's public health. Keeping people in their homes and out of crowded or congregate settings — like homeless shelters — by preventing evictions is a key step in helping to stop the spread of COVID-19."

Landlords, however, have been pushing back, arguing that they've taken a huge financial hit over the past year, losing billions of dollars a month in rent. And several business groups have sued the CDC and won, though court decisions to lift the moratorium have stayed pending appeal.

Fessler reports that the Alabama Association of Realtors, which brought one of the cases, argued that the CDC exceeded its authority in issuing the ban. The group is seeking relief from the U.S. Supreme Court, but the justices have yet to respond, calling the CDC's "continued insistence that public-health concerns necessitate that landlords continue to provide free housing for tenants who have received vaccines (or passed up the chance to get them) ... sheer doublespeak."

While housing advocates have argued that the moratorium is still very much needed, the $46 billion in emergency rental assistance (money to cover rent that tenants currently owe) approved by Congress has been a slow process. It was reported that less than 5% of the funds have been distributed so far, and housing coalition groups pushed the administration to extend the ban to give states and localities more time to get the money out.

Fessler also reports that a new study by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University found that communities with the lowest vaccination rates tend to have the highest eviction filings, raising additional health concerns. "Allowing the moratorium to expire before vaccination rates increase in marginalized communities could lead to increased spread of, and deaths from, COVID-19," a group of more than 40 House lawmakers wrote in a letter this week to President Biden and the CDC, urging them to extend the moratorium.

Source: NPR | TBWS

This Week's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market.  This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events.  When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down.  When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.  Tracking these securities real-time is critical.  For more information about the rate market, contact me directly.  I’m among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Lower

Mortgage rates are trending sideways this morning.  Last week the MBS market worsened by -4 bps.  This caused rates to finish mostly unchanged for the week. We saw elevated rate volatility through the week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas with the greatest ability to move rates this week: 1) Jobs, 2) The Fed, and 3) Domestic.

1) Jobs: We get a ton of jobs and wage-related data this week, culminating with Big Jobs Friday. This week's barrage of jobs data includes: ADP Private Payrolls, Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, Challenger Job Cuts, ISM data, Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Average Work Week, U6 Underemployment, and the Participation Rate.

2) The Fed: As we continue to get strong economic and inflationary readings, we will continue to focus on the Fed's "transitory" spin...will we see some "dovish" members begin to move towards a more "hawkish" stance in this week's speeches?

3) Domestic: The biggest (non-jobs) economic releases this week that can impact rates are Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, and ISM Manufacturing.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

The likelihood of volatility today is low, but we could see some volatility through the week. Rate markets will pay close attention to what the Fed officials have to say and some of the inflation data. However, the most likely chance for rate volatility is on Friday with jobs data.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 27 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on June 28th, 2021 2:24 PM

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