CHM Blog

Real Estate Market Insider September 6, 2022

September 6th, 2022 12:54 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568

Rates At a Glance
Mortgage Rates
Currently Trending
7 Day Mortgage
Rate Forecast
This Week's
Potential Volatility



(by Sigma Research)
Real Estate Report

Typical Home Now Sells For Less Than Asking Price:

According to Redfin, the average sale-to-list ratio fell below 100% for the first time since March 2021 and the share of homes with a price drop came down from its record high.

The average home sold for less than its list price for the first time in over 17 months during the four-week period ending August 28, as the housing market cooldown continued. Every month since March of 2021 has seen an average sale-to-list ratio of over 100%, meaning that the average home has sold for more than its final asking price, after all price drops. This comes as the share of listings with a price drop has finally begun to plateau.

Despite the easing in home prices, demand from homebuyers is still chilled—mortgage purchase applications and pending sales both saw large declines from a year ago. Home sellers are also reluctant to step into the market: new listings and total inventory of homes for sale saw large declines as well.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events.  When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Higher

Mortgage rates are moving higher today. The MBS market worsened by -26 bps last week. This may have been enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Higher

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Central Banks, 2) The Fed, and 3) Domestic News

1) Central Banks: We will get key interest rate decisions and policy statements from Australia, Canada and the ECB. All are expected to raise interest rates by at least 50 basis points. The markets will give the most weight to the ECB.

2) The Fed: We will hear from Fed Chair Powell on Thursday and we will get their Beige Book on Wednesday.

09/07 Mester, Brainard, Barr and the Beige Book

09/08 Powell, Evans, Balance Sheet

09/09 Evans and Waller

3) Domestic News: The biggest economic release of the week is the ISM Non Manufacturing report on Tuesday. The next level lower of economic data would be Thursday's Initial Jobless Claims data.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets are under pressure as traders put money back to work. Volatility is high to start but will likely calm later in the week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on September 6th, 2022 12:54 PM



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