CHM Blog

Real Estate Market Insider May 9, 2022

May 9th, 2022 1:49 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568


Rates At a Glance
Mortgage Rates
Currently Trending
7 Day Mortgage
Rate Forecast
This Week's
Potential Volatility

Lower

Neutral

High
(by Sigma Research)
Real Estate Report

Here are the Top Ten Moving Destinations:

To determine the top 10 moving destinations for 2021, moving truck rental company Penske examined one-way consumer truck rental reservations made through the company's website, calls to its call center and via one-way reservations made at Penske's more than 2,500 truck rental locations.

The top 10 moving destinations for 2021, according to the Penske list, which was released May 2:

  1. Houston
  2. Las Vegas
  3. Phoenix
  4. Charlotte, N.C.
  5. Denver
  6. San Antonio
  7. Dallas
  8. Orlando, Fla.
  9. Austin, Texas
  10. Chicago
This Week's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market.  This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events.  When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down.  When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.  Tracking these securities real-time is critical.  For more information about the rate market, contact me directly.  I’m among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving lower today. The MBS market worsened by -73 bps last week. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Higher

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Inflation, 2) The Fed and 3) Treasury Sales.

1) Inflation: Other than the Fed's key measure of inflation (Core PCE), we get the two most important inflationary gauges this week with Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index. Both are expected to remain at very elevated levels with markets split on if they will truly show a peak or moderation in the pace of acceleration. Just how strong or weak these data sets are will have a major impact rates.

2) The Fed: We get a lot of Fed speak this week with the bond market focusing on getting more of a consensus out of the Fed on what they consider a "neutral" rate, and the scale and timing of their rate hike path.

  • 05/09 Raphael Bostic
  • 05/10 John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Neek Kashkari, Loretta Mester
  • 05/11 Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
  • 05/12 Mary Daly, Fed Balance Sheet
  • 05/13 Nell Kashkari

3) Treasury Sales: We have 3s, 10's and our 30 this week. We really haven't seen any meaningful impact after the last several 10 year note auctions but we have seen some volatility after the last couple of 20 year bond and 30 year bond Treasury auctions.

  • 05/10 3 year note
  • 05/11 10 year note
  • 05/12 30 year bond

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets are regaining some of the ground lost last week. Volatility has been high to start and will likely stay high through the week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on May 9th, 2022 1:49 PM

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