CHM Blog

Real Estate Market Insider August 29, 2022

August 29th, 2022 12:34 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568


Rates At a Glance
Mortgage Rates
Currently Trending
7 Day Mortgage
Rate Forecast
This Week's
Potential Volatility

Higher

Higher

High
(by Sigma Research)
Real Estate Report

Home Prices Level Off, Inventories Rise:

According to the National Association of Realtors most recent Existing Home Sales report, the median existing-home sales price climbed 10.8% from one year ago to $403,800. That's down $10,000, however, from last month's record high of $413,800.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slipped 5.9% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.81 million in July. Year-over-year, sales fell 20.2% (6.03 million in July 2021).

Total housing inventory registered at the end of July was 1,310,000 units, an increase of 4.8% from June and unchanged from the previous year. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 2.9 months in June and 2.6 months in July 2021.

The median existing-home price for all housing types in July was $403,800, up 10.8% from July 2021 ($364,600), as prices increased in all regions. This marks 125 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.

Properties typically remained on the market for 14 days in July, the same as in June and down from 17 days in July 2021. The 14 days on market are the fewest since NAR began tracking it in May 2011. Eighty-two percent of homes sold in July 2022 were on the market for less than a month.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market.  This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events.  When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down.  When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.  Tracking these securities real-time is critical.  For more information about the rate market, contact me directly.  I’m among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Higher

Mortgage rates are moving higher today. The MBS market worsened by -22 bps last week. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Higher

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Jobs, 2) The Fed and 3) Manufacturing.

1) Jobs: We get a ton of job and wage related data this week that starts Tuesday with JOLTS and culminates with Big Jobs Friday.

2) The Fed: Now that we heard from everyone on the Fed last week... we will hear from a lot of them again this week, the bond market will be paying close attention to see if any of them are changing their tune or doubling down on the overall theme out of Jackson Hole.

3) Manufacturing: After weeks of regional and lower level manufacturing releases, we get the key measures of manufacturing this week with Chicago PMI, ISM Manufacturing and Factory Orders.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets are under a lot of pressure. Volatility has started high as some traders start hedging their bets.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on August 29th, 2022 12:34 PM

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