April 25th, 2022 12:12 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Median Sales Prices Hit New All Time High:
The median existing-home sales price rose to $375,300, up 15% from one year ago according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million units in March.
Total housing inventory at the end of March totaled 950,000 units, up 11.8% from February and down 9.5% from one year ago (1.05 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.0-month supply at the present sales pace, up from 1.7 months in February and down from 2.1 months in March 2021.
The median existing-home price for all housing types in March was $375,300, up 15.0% from March 2021 ($326,300), as prices rose in each region. This marks 121 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.
Properties typically remained on the market for 17 days in March, down from 18 days in February and 18 days in March 2021. Eighty-seven percent of homes sold in March 2022 were on the market for less than a month.
First-time buyers were responsible for 30% of sales in March, up from 29% in February and down from 32% in March 2021. NAR's 2021 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released in late 20214 – reported that the annual share of first-time buyers was 34%. Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 18% of homes in March, down from 19% in February but up from 15% in March 2021. All-cash sales accounted for 28% of transactions in March, up from both the 25% recorded in February and from 23% in March 2021.
Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented less than 1% of sales in March, equal to the percentage seen in both February 2022 and March 2021.
How Rates Move:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I’m among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.
Rates Currently Trending: Lower
Mortgage rates are moving lower today. The MBS market worsened by -27 bps last week. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.
This Week's Rate Forecast: Higher
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week: 1) Inflation, 2) Domestic News and 3) Geopolitical
1) Inflation: We get the Fed's official key measure of inflation, Core PCE, on Friday. The headline PCE reading is expected to hit a new record high while the Core PCE is expected to remain close to the last reading which was a 40 year high.
2) Domestic News: We have a ton of manufacturing news with Durable Goods Orders, Richmond Fed and Chicago PMI which will all be very important to watch. Thursday's GDP is the first release for the 1st QTR and is expected to show growth at 1%... the actual data (if significantly higher or lower than the estimate) can have a big impact on rates.
3) Geopolitical: Oil prices are back down below $100 on concerns over China's prolonged shutdown and even an expansion to that shutdown with cases in Beijing surging. NATO, Russia/Ukraine will continue to be of importance to markets.
This Week's Potential Volatility: High
This morning markets are moving lower with oil prices dropping. Volatility is high as inflation fears compete with geopolitical slowdowns.
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.