CHM Blog

No news this morning that interests traders or investors. This afternoon at 2 pm ET the FOMC policy statement, the Fed’s quarterly outlook for the next two years, and at 2:30 pm Jerome Powell’s press conference.

If there is anything a given coming from the Fed, it’s that the Fed will increase the FF rate 50 bps and then slow the increases in 2023. How slow will depend on wage growth and economic conditions. Inflation of prices is decreasing but it is wages that will be the dominant focus in 2023. The 50 bp increase is totally discounted in current rate levels.

Not much movement this morning, the 10 yr. unchanged at 9 am and MBSs -9 bps.

MBA mortgage applications better last week with rates stabilizing. The composite index +3.2%, purchase apps +4.0% and re-finance apps +2.8%. The survey uses responses from mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The data cover more than 75% of all retail residential mortgage applications in the US.

Nov import and export prices continue to increase but less than forecasts. Imports yr./yr. 2.7% from 4.1% in October. Export prices yr./yr. +6.3% from 7.4%.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +33, NASDAQ -6, S&P +3. 10 yr. note 3.51% unch. FNMA 5.5 30 yr. coupon -6 bps but 31 bps better than 9:30 am yesterday.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr note: 3.50% -1 bp

5 yr note: 3.63% -3 bp

2 Yr note: 4.19% -3 bp

30 yr bond: 3.54% unch

Libor Rates: 1 mo 4.318%; 3 mo 4.769%; 6 mo 5.206%; 1 yr 5.551% (12/13/22)

30 yr FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.16 -6 bp (-25 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.25 -6 bp (+26 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.00 -14 bp (-9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.9509 +$0.0061

Dollar/Yen: 134.85 -0.73 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0650 +$0.0016

Dollar Index: 103.88 -0.10

Gold: $1822.80 -$2.70

Bitcoin: 18,033 +268

Crude Oil: $76.86 +$1.47

DJIA: 34,252 +143

NASDAQ: 11,291 +34

S&P 500: 4037 +17

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.