CHM Blog

Daily Rate Insider October 13, 2021

October 13th, 2021 1:46 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568


Rates At a Glance
Mortgage Rates
Currently Trending
Today's Mortgage
Rate Forecast
Today's Potential
Rate Volatility

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

(by Sigma Research)
Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I’m among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +2 bps yesterday. This was not enough to improve mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: Weekly Mortgage Applications were flat at 0.2%. Purchases increased by 2.0% and Refinance applications fell by -1.0%.

Inflation: The September headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 5.4% on a YOY basis vs. est. of 5.3%. On a MOM basis, it increased by 0.4% vs. est. of 0.3%. Core CPI (ex food and energy) increased by 4.0% on a YOY basis which matched expectations. MOM, it was up 0.2% vs. est. of 0.1%. The Atlanta Fed District's Inflation Expectations remained at 3.1% for a year out while businesses reported a 3.5% increase in their cost growth on average.

The Fed: We get the Minutes from the last FOMC meeting at 2 pm ET. Vice Chair Richard Clarida says that in his opinion, that they have now met their inflationary test to start to adjust rate policy but he is not among the majority.

Treasury: We have a very important 30 year Treasury bond auction at 1 pm today.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning we saw a lot of initial negative movement on CPI data but markets have largely recovered. Volatility should stay at moderate levels with the FOMC minutes later today.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 27 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on October 13th, 2021 1:46 PM

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