September 24th, 2020 8:55 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The 10 yr. was unchanged overnight, at 8:30 am ET weekly jobless claims, a critical data point these days, expected at 880K declined to 870K, the previous week though was revised to 866K from 860K. There was nothing negative in the data, but the 10 yr. edged lower to 0.66%. The report's takeaway is that initial jobless claims remain at high levels that point to the ongoing challenges U.S. businesses face getting back on a pre-pandemic track. In the same period a year ago, initial jobless claims were 215,000. Claims are not going back to those levels for a year or more, if then. Early trading this morning in the MBS markets was better; at 8:45 am ET, MBS prices were +7 bps from yesterday's close. The stock indexes reacted to claims as being worse; an excuse media reported…splitting hairs. Claims are not declining, but not increasing either. The equity market is grinding out all of the over-valued stocks as well as increasing worries that Joe Biden has an increasing chance of winning, and increasing corporate taxes will follow. At 8:45 am ET, the DJIA down 178, NASDAQ -149, S&P -28 in futures trading.
Yesterday there was a lot for investors to ponder; here is the end of the day comments from Bloomberg.
At 9:30 am ET, the DJIA opened -51 after being down 178, NASDAQ opened -45 after being down 149 at 8:45 am, the S&P also opened better -8. The 10 yr. note is at 0.67% unchanged. FNMA 2.0 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 am +9 bps from yesterday's close, and +12 bps from 9:30 am yesterday; FNMA 2.5 coupon at 9:30 am +5 bps from yesterday's close, and +5 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 10:00 am ET, August new home sales roared higher, which was expected; sales at 1.011K with estimates at 875K; July sale also revised better from 901K to 965K. We will have the details this afternoon. No matter all of the details, the report much better than expected, and the outlook will continue to be strong with interest rates at these historically low levels. Interesting that MBS prices slipped a little from 9:30 am ET.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM ET
10 yr. note: 0.67% unch
5 yr. note: 0.28% unch
2 Yr. note: 0.14 % unch
30 yr. bond: 1.41% -1 bp
Libor Rates: 1 mo. 0.148%; 3 mo. 0.225%; 6 mo. 0.271%; 1 yr. 0.371% (9/23/20)
30 yr. FNMA 2.5: @9:30 104.69 +5 bp (+5 bps from 9:30 yesterday)
30 yr. FNMA 2.0: @9:30 103.11 +9 bp (+11 bps from 9:30 yesterday)
30 yr. GNMA 2.5: @9:30 104.28 -9 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
Dollar/Yuan: $6.8305 +$0.0201
Dollar/Yen: 105.45 +0.09 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1643 -$0.0018
Dollar Index: 94.54 +0.15
Gold: $1855.60 -$13.00
Crude Oil: $39.7 4 -$0.19
DJIA: 26,853 +90
NASDAQ: 10,712 +79
S&P 500: 3252 +15
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 27 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.