October 22nd, 2020 8:54 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
A mixed look at weekly jobless claims this morning; claims were expected at 865K, as reported 787K -55K. The prior week also better, revised from 898K to 842K. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell for the third time in four weeks, suggesting the labor market is still gradually recovering. Without adjustments for seasonal fluctuations, claims dropped by about 73,000. Continuing claims fell by 1.02 million to 8.37 million in the week ended Oct. 10, though the number of Americans on extended unemployment benefits rose. That reflects people who exhausted regular state benefits. California, which halted claims for the last two weeks due to a massive backlog and improved fraud prevention, reported claims fell to 158,877. Claims show signs of improvement in the labor market but still need more stimulus with claims expiring.
There was no reaction to the better claims in the bond and mortgage markets; stock indexes in futures trading also didn’t see much of a boost.
This evening the debate is the prime focus today. We’re not looking for much change in stocks or interest rates, focusing on how each candidate will perform.
More stimulus on the way? It doesn’t look like it. For all of the talking and all of the anticipation, and all of the good news that there is progress, it isn’t getting done. “We’ve made progress in this regard. But we’re still not there -- but we can be,” Pelosi said on MSNBC this morning. She said that she would speak again with Mnuchin Thursday and that the two sides will be “pretty soon ready to put pen to paper” on the text for a bill. According to the latest remarks, the stumbling block remains about providing money to states and local governments that are increasingly in financial difficulty.
At 9:30 am ET, the DJIA opened +46, NASDAQ +61, S&P +9. 10 yr. note 0.83% unchanged. FNMA 2.0 30 yr. coupon -5 bps from yesterday’s close and +2 bps from 9:30 am ET yesterday; FNMA 2.5 coupon at 9:30 am -8 bps from yesterday’s close, and -9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 10:00 am ET, Sept existing home sales, expected 6.2 mil; as released 6.54 mil +9.5%; yr./yr. sales +20%. Sept LEI +0.7% from +0.6%.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM ET
10 yr. note: 0.83% unch
5 yr. note: 0.36% unch
2 Yr. note: 0.15% unch
30 yr. bond: 1.63% -1 bp
Libor Rates: 1 mo. 0.147%; 3 mo. 0.209%; 6 mo. 0.246%; 1 yr. 0.334% (10/21/20)
30 yr. FNMA 2.0: @9:30 102.94 -5 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 yr. FNMA 2.5: @9:30 104.17 -8 bp (-9 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 yr. GNMA 2.5: @9:30 104.09 -19 bp (-16 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
Dollar/Yuan: $6.6828 +$0.0317
Dollar/Yen: 104.71 +0.13 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1825 -$0.0036
Dollar Index: 92.82 +0.21
Gold: $1907.80 -$21.40
Crude Oil: $40.45 +$0.42
DJIA: 28,256 +45
NASDAQ: 11,505 +20
S&P 500: 3441 +5
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 27 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.