CHM Blog

Daily Market Analysis Novmeber 19, 2020

November 19th, 2020 9:47 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568

Daily Market Analysis

There's still no real change in the rate markets; yesterday the 10 yr. note increased 2 bps, this morning down 2 bps, MBS price yesterday -8 bps, this morning up 8 bps.

At 8:30 am ET, weekly jobless claims were higher than thought, at 742K against 710K forecasts. Claims increased 31K from the week before, the first increase in five weeks. The 4 week average of claims at 742K declined from 755.75K the previous week. Continuing claims -- the total pool of Americans on ongoing state unemployment benefits --fell 429,000 to 6.37 million in the week ended Nov. 7. The number of Americans claiming extended assistance continued to rise as many unemployed exhausted regular state benefits. Although the increase in claims increased, it wasn't a serious increase; worries now that the increases in the virus and increasing closures across the county of non-essential businesses will increase unemployment claims. Even more concerning is if shutdowns increase the decimation of more small businesses and the lack of a new stimulus will weaken the economic outlook. There was no noticeable reaction to the data.

Also, at 8:30 am ET, the Nov Philadelphia business index expected at 24.5 from 32.3 was a little better at 26.3.

At 9:30 am ET, the DJIA opened -113, NASDAQ -17, S&P -14. 10 yr. 0.86% -2 bps. FNMA 2.0 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 am +11 bps from yesterday's close and unchanged from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10:00 am ET, October leading economic indicators; expected +0.7%; as reported +0.7%.

At 10:00 am October existing home sales, expected at 6.470 mil, as reported sales increased to 6.850 mil; +4.3% m/m and +26% yr./yr. The $1.05 trillion of home mortgages originated last quarter was the highest since 2003.

ATTOM Data Solutions provides real estate data solutions; some data released today. The median down payment for single-family homes and condos in the US was $20,775 in the third quarter, the most in records going back to 2000. That's up 69% from $12,325 a year earlier, before record-low mortgage rates kicked the housing boom into a higher gear. Borrowers put up 6.6% of the median sale price of homes financed in the quarter, up from 4.7% a year earlier and the highest level since 2018. The median loan amount in the quarter of $275,500 was the highest since 2000, up 24% from the third quarter of last year.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM ET

10 yr. note: 0.86% -2 bp

5 yr. note: 0.38% -1 bp

2 Yr. note: 0.17% unch

30 yr. bond: 1.58% -2 bp

Libor Rates: 1 mo. 0.146%; 3 mo. 0.223%; 6 mo. 0.256%; 1 yr. 0.338% (11/18/20)

30 yr. FNMA 2.0: @9:30 103.59 +11 bp (unch from 9:30 yesterday)

30 yr. FNMA 2.5: @9:30 104.70 +9 bp (+11 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

30 yr. GNMA 2.5: @9:30 104.86 unch (=13 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.5851 +$0.0244

Dollar/Yen: 104.00 +0.21 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1832 -$0.0023

Dollar Index: 92.65 +0.34

Gold: $1856.20 -$17.70

Crude Oil: $41.59 -$0.23

DJIA: 29,394 -44

NASDAQ: 11,836 +35

S&P 500: 3564 -3

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 27 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted in:General
Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on November 19th, 2020 9:47 AM



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