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Daily Market Analysis November 4, 2021

November 4th, 2021 9:14 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568


Daily Market Analysis

The rate markets slipped a little yesterday on the FOMC news and Powell’s press conference. There was nothing yesterday that hadn’t been widely anticipated, this morning the 10 yr. started at 1.56% -3 bps from yesterday’s 3 bp increase. MBSs lost 18 bps yesterday, at 9 am ET this morning up 19 bps. So markets are back to where they were at the close Tuesday. Inflation outlooks differ between the Fed and trading in futures markets that currently is betting inflation will last longer than what the Fed believes.

This morning weekly jobless claims were 269K, fractionally lower than 277K expected putting claims down 14K last week.

Q3 preliminary productivity and unit labor costs; worker productivity was expected at -1.5%, it fell -5.0%; unit labor costs expected +5.3% increased +8.3%.

Zillow Group Inc. pulled the plug on its tech-powered home-flipping operation. The decision to abandon home flipping came as the company’s third-quarter results showed it lost more than $380 million in the operation, called Zillow Offers. The business hit a major snag in recent months as Zillow tweaked its algorithms to make more aggressive offers, causing it to overpay for houses just as the heated U.S. market began to cool slightly. Chief Executive Officer Rich Barton: “Fundamentally, we have been unable to predict future pricing of homes to a level of accuracy that makes this a safe business to be in.”

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -8, NASDAQ +31, S&P +6. 10 yr. note at 9:30 am 1.56% -3 bp. FNMA 2.5 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 am +17 bps and unchanged from 9:30 am yesterday.

Tomorrow is October employment data. We don’t expect MBS prices will improve from the gains so far today.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr. note: 1.56% -3 bp

5 yr. note: 1.14% -3 bp

2 Yr. note: 0.43% -3 bp

30 yr. bond: 1.99% unch

Libor Rates: 1 mo. 0.086%; 3 mo. 0.140%; 6 mo. 0.218%; 1 yr. 0.358% (11/3/21)

30 yr. FNMA 3.0: 104.39 +13 bp (+8 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr. FNMA 2.5: 102.81 +17 bp (unchanged from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr. GNMA 2.5: 102.67 +17 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.3923 -$0.0145

Dollar/Yen: 113.85 -0.16 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1556 -$0.0054

Dollar Index: 94.24 +0.37

Gold: $1795.80 +$31.90

Bitcoin: 61,833 -1164

Crude Oil: $82.86 +$2.00

DJIA: 36,140 -17

NASDAQ: 15,898 +87

S&P 500: 4677 +17

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 27 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on November 4th, 2021 9:14 AM

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