November 3rd, 2020 8:56 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Stock indexes trading higher again today following the DJIA move higher yesterday+423. At 8:00 am ET this morning, up the DJIA up another 400 points. Last week the index fell 1824 points. Adjusting for the election, driving increased uncertainty about who will win. Polls say Biden, crowds at Trump rallies make it an uneasy call. There won’t be any conclusive results tonight with uncounted ballots in states like Pennsylvania and a few others that by state laws, absentee ballots can’t begin to be counted until the end of the election tonight. The early ballots being cast in record numbers this election are counted at varying times in different states, so partial results showing which presidential candidate is ahead Tuesday night are likely to fluctuate. A Biden win is still the consensus, although the confidence level as the day approaches has ebbed somewhat; one gauge slipped to just over 50% odds of the so-called Blue Wave -- that Democrats oust President Donald Trump and take Congressional majorities. There really isn’t much to add to this subject; it will be what it will be.
The 10 yr. note yield yesterday edged down 1 bps. This morning, in early trading, its 2 bps. MBS prices began -9 bps from yesterday’s close.
At 9:30 am ET, the DJIA opened +302, NASDAQ +58, S&P +31. 10 yr. at 9:30 am 0.88% +2 bps. 2.0 FNMA 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 am -8 bps from yesterday’s close and -28 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
The only data today, Sept factory orders, expected +0.9% as released +1.1%.
The virus is spreading in Europe; many ideas are floating around, from massive testing of everyone to extended shutdowns.
In the last five sessions, the 10 yr. note yield has increased from 0.74% to 0.88% this morning. FNMA 2.0 30 yr. coupon from the close last Wednesday has declined 20 bps. Both the 10 yr. and MBS markets still within very narrow ranges.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM ET
10 yr. note: 0.88% +3 bp
5 yr. note: 0.39% +1 bp
2 Yr. note: 0.17% unch
30 yr. bond: 1.66% +4 bp
Libor Rates: 1 mo. 0.140%; 3 mo. 0.220%; 6 mo. 0.246%; 1 yr. 0.332% (11/2/20)
30 yr. FNMA 2.0: @9:30 103.03 -8 bp (-28 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 yr. FNMA 2.5: @9:30 104.22 -3 bp (-14 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 yr. GNMA 2.5: @9:30 104.45 -9 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
Dollar/Yuan: $6.6783 -$0.0132
Dollar/Yen: 104.68 -0.07 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1715 +$0.0074
Dollar Index: 93.52 -0.61
Gold: $1905.80 $13.30
Crude Oil: $38.10 +$1.29
DJIA: 27,434 +509
NASDAQ: 11,104 +147
S&P 500: 3362 +52
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 27 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.