November 18th, 2021 8:41 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The 10 yr. note yield after 8:30 am ET data releases up 1 bp to 1.60%.Weekly jobless claims, expected at 261K, as reported 268K; the prior week revised from 267K to 268K so week on week claims declined 1K. Weekly claims have settled down recently and have been close to forecasts after months of high volatility. The report should have little to no impact for interest rates. The relatively rapid decline in claims is evidence employer demand for workers is unusually strong, economists say. Job openings are near record highs, but many businesses say they can’t find enough workers to fill the roles.
Also, at 8:30 am the Philadelphia Fed released its Nov business index; in October the index was 23.8, expectations for November were 21.4. The index as reported increased to 39.0 indicating a substantial improvement in the Northeast.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -25, NASDAQ +37, S&P +9. 10 yr. at 9:30 1.61% +2 bps. FNMA 2.5 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 am -5 bps from yesterday and +5 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 10 am October leading economic indicators; expected +0.8%, as reported +0.9%. Not much of a market-mover since it encompasses most of the economic reports through the month.
There are no more economic reports this week. No change in the political battle over the huge spending bill being debated unless the CBO releases its scoring on the spending tomorrow. The consensus already is forming that when the details of the costs are released the costs of the spending and taxation as proposed will not meet the test that the bill will be completely paid for.
There is a storm brewing over the level of the equity markets, more analysts, market traders, investors are sounding alarms that many equities are over-valued. There hasn’t been a significant correction in stocks for over a year; any pullbacks have been met with strong new buying. Low interest rates keep money flowing into stocks as fear has been replaced with greed according to Goldman Sachs comments recently. It isn’t if, but when, a major correction will begin; or what the trigger will be; the tide is turning and the number of forecasters increasing concerns.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 yr. note: 1.60% +1 bp
5 yr. note: 1.24% +1 bp
2 Yr. note: 0.50% unch
30 yr. bond: 1.98% unch
Libor Rates: 1 mo. 0.089%; 3 mo. 0.157%; 6 mo. 0.229%; 1 yr. 0.399% (11/17/21)
30 yr. FNMA 3.0: @9:30 am 103.92 -5 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 yr. FNMA 2.5: @9:30 am 102.25 -5 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 am yesterday) (@10:00 +5 bps on the day)
30 yr. GNMA 2.5: @9:30 am 102.22 -2 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yuan: $6.3858 +$0.0078
Dollar/Yen: 114.40 +0.28 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1341 +$0.0023
Dollar Index: 95.75 -0.07
Gold: $1,865.20 -$5.00
Bitcoin: 58,892 -1,465
Crude Oil: $78.70 +$0.34
DJIA: 35,799 -152
NASDAQ: 15,958 +36
S&P 500: 4,695 +6
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 27 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.