CHM Blog

Daily Market Analysis November 17, 2022

November 17th, 2022 9:43 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568


Daily Market Analysis

Weekly jobless claims expected 222K was right on,-4K. The 4-week average 221K up from 219K last week.

October housing starts and permits at 8:30 am ET. Starts were expected at 1.410 mil increased to 1.425 mil and Sept starts revised higher, from 1.439 mil to 1.488 mil. Permits expected at 1.516 mil increased 1.526 mil.

Rounding out today’s economic data; the Nov Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index thought to be -7.0 from -8.7 in October dropped 19.4. Manufacturing in the NE slowing but the series doesn’t get much attention from traders.

One of the Fed’s biggest hawks, championing higher rates, St. Louis Fed James Bullard, urged policymakers to raise interest rates further, saying the level will need to be higher to meet the central bank’s goal to be “sufficiently restrictive” to bring down inflation. “Even under these generous assumptions, the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive,”… “To attain a sufficiently restrictive level, the policy rate will need to be increased further.”… “Thus far, the change in the monetary-policy stance appears to have had only limited effects on observed inflation, but market pricing suggests disinflation is expected in 2023,” … “It is possible that increased financial stress could develop,”. His remarks were delivered already today in Louisville.

Overnight the 10 yr. note yield increased, at 8:30 am this morning 3.77% -10 bps; MBSs began -44 bps from yesterday’s close.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -280, NASDAQ -172, S&P -45. 10 yr. at 9:30 am 3.77% +9 bp. FNMA 5.5 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 am -39 bps and -13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

Republicans won the House according to those that know those things; a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives yesterday, setting the stage for two years of divided government with the Democratic Party holding control of the Senate. Gridlock will be the definition of Washington for the next two years, markets like gridlock. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to announce whether she will retire from Congress or seeks party leader. Dems have several older legislators; Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, 82, and Democratic Whip James Clyburn, 83. Democrats are set to vote on their leaders on Nov. 30.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr note: 3.80% +11 bp

5 yr note: 3.95% +10 bp

2 Yr note: 4.45% +7 bp

30 yr bond: 3.92% +8 bp

Libor Rates: 1 mo 3.910%; 3 mo 4.674%; 6 mo 5.082%; 1 yr 5.465% (11/16/22)

30 yr FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.47 -39 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.45 -39 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.66 -11 bp (-6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.1622 +$0.0734

Dollar/Yen: 140.36 +0.82 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0347 -$0.0049

Dollar Index: 106.92 +0.64

Gold: $1761.70 -$14.10

Bitcoin: 16,510 -28

Crude Oil: $83.89 -$1.70

DJIA: 33,279 -271

NASDAQ: 11,024 -160

S&P 500: 3911 -48

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on November 17th, 2022 9:43 AM

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