November 16th, 2022 9:36 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
October retail sales were stronger than estimates, released at 8:30 am ET sales were expected +1.0% from 0.0% in Sept, sales increased 1.3%. Excluding autos sales increased 1.3% against estimates of +0.5%, ex autos and gas +0.9% with forecasts of 0.2%.
October import and export prices. Import prices m/m expected at -0.4% declined 0.2%, yr./yr. forecasts +4.0% increased 4.2%. Export prices thought to be +0.2% m/m declined 0.3%, yr./yr. +6.9% from 9.2% in Sept.
The two 8:30 am reports didn’t move the rate markets, the 10 yr. at 3.77% -2 bps from yesterday, early MBS prices -8 bps. Last night the 10 yr. jumped to 3.84% on safe haven buying over the news that a missile hit in Poland yesterday that may have been fired by Russia, as it appears this morning Russia didn’t do it, it was fallout from Ukraine hitting incoming missile that landed pieces of it in Poland. No international incident according NATO comments.
Weekly MBA mortgage apps better last week. The composite +2.7% from the prior week, purchase apps +4.4% but re-finances down 1.6%. Mortgage rates have declined about 80 bps over the last two weeks.
At 9:15 am October leading economic indicators expected +0.2% declined 0.1%. Capacity utilization thought to be 80.4% fell to 79.6% and sept revised to 80.1% from 80.3%.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -55, NASDAQ -94, S&P -18. 10 yr. 3.72% -7 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 yr. coupon +5 bps and unchanged from yesterday.
At 10 am NAHB Nov housing market index fell to 33 from 38 in October, the estimate 36.
Also, at 10 am Sept business inventories expected +0.5% reported at +0.4%. The inventory levels are moving lower, a indication that demand is slowing, the increase in inventories is at its weakest since April 2021.
Target saying sales will be slow this holiday and will cut jobs. Announced job reductions are increasing, Amazon, Meta, Twitter getting headlines. October retail sales better than thought add more uncertainty to the outlook. Fed officials out today, John Williams NY Fed, Lael Brainard vice-chair at the Fed. ECBs Christine Lagarde also expected to speak. Tomorrow Eurozone CPI, Neel Kashkari Minneapolis Fed, Loretta Mester Cleveland Fed.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 yr note: 3.72% -7 bp
5 yr note: 3.86% -3 bp
2 Yr note: 4.26% +1 bp
30 yr bond: 3.91% -5 bp
Libor Rates: 1 mo 3.904%; 3 mo 4.645%; 6 mo 5.085%; 1 yr 5.460% (11/15/22)
30 yr FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.59 unch (-8 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 yr FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.58 +5 bp (unch from 9:30 am yesterday) @ 10:00 am +23 bps)
30 yr GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.72 -8 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yuan: $7.0884 +$0.0439
Dollar/Yen: 139.44 +0.13 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0379 +$0.0030
Dollar Index: 106.27 -0.14
Gold: $1779.30 +$2.50
Bitcoin: 16,428 -452
Crude Oil: $84.90 -$2.02
DJIA: 33,626 +30
NASDAQ: 11,230 -127
S&P 500: 3972 -20
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.