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Daily Market Analysis May 4, 2022

May 4th, 2022 10:20 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568


Daily Market Analysis

Rate markets began the day unchanged from yesterday, as expected with FOMC this afternoon.

ADP April private jobs were less than expected at 247K against estimates of 398K, but March was revised higher, from 455K to 479K, no market reaction.

The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record in March, reflecting a surge in imports. The gap in goods and services trade grew 22.3% to $109.8 billion, Commerce Department data showed, the estimates were -$107.1B. Exports were $241.7B, $12.9B more than February exports. Imports were $351.5 billion, $32.9 billion more than February imports.

Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, in an interview on Bloomberg TV this morning said the obvious, that the Fed should have moved sooner begin tightening. “We’re a little late,” “The sooner they move the better.” He went on saying the U.S. economy is “very strong,”, although there was a one third chance of the Fed’s actions leading to a soft landing and a one third chance of a mild recession. A bigger risk to the global economy than monetary tightening is the war in Ukraine, Dimon said, noting the crisis could have years to run. He said sanctions against Russia were working as intended although they are only “a tool in the toolkit” and “not definitive. What’s definitive is tanks.”

At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened +27, NASDAQ -4, S&P +4. 10 yr. 2.98% +3 bps.

At 10 am FNMA 4.5 30 yr. coupon -19 bps from yesterday and -37 bps from 10 am yesterday.

At 10 am April ISM non-manufacturing index expected at 58.9 dropped to 57.1 from 58.3 in March.

The 10 yr. note sitting at 3.00% the level that held yesterday, before ending the day at 2.96%. Waiting now until 2 pm when the FOMC policy statement is released, then Powell’s press conference at 2:30 pm to 3:30 pm. Generally quiet now until the news hits.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr note: 3.00% +4 bp

5 yr note: 3.04% +2 bp

2 Yr note: 2.82% +6 bp

30 yr bond: 3.05% +1 bp

Libor Rates: 1 mo 0.832%; 3 mo 1.363%; 6 mo 1.980%; 1 yr 2.694% (5/3/22)

30 yr FNMA 4.0: @10:00 am 101.02 -19 bp (-37 bp from 10:00 am yesterday)

30 yr FNMA 4.5: @10:00 am 98.78 -22 bp (-35 bp from 10:00 am yesterday)

30 yr GNMA 4.0: @10:00 am 99.58 -20 bp (-36 bp from 10:00 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.6083 unch (China’s markets closed)

Dollar/Yen: 130.06 -0.08 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0537 +$0.0018

Dollar Index: 103.35 -0.11

Gold: $1867.60 -$3.00

Bitcoin: 38,882 +1249

Crude Oil: $106.70 +$4.29

DJIA: 33,207 +78

NASDAQ: 12,485 -78

S&P 500: 4173 -3

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on May 4th, 2022 10:20 AM

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