CHM Blog

The pattern remains the same as the last week, stocks better, interest rates higher. The recent heavy selling of equities has pushed safety moves to treasuries, yesterday the 10 yr. note yield fell 8 bps to 2.82% as stock indexes and fears mounted, MBS prices increased 26 bps. This morning stock indexes began higher, the 10 yield at 9 am ET 2.92% +10 bps and MBS started down 20 bps from yesterday’s close.

April import and export prices released at 8:30 am were both less than forecasts. Import prices expected +0.6% were unchanged, yr./yr. expectations +12.0% on thoughts of 12.9%. Export prices estimates +1.0% increased just 0.6%, yr./yr. +18.0% on forecasts of 19.2%. It is another report that implies price increase have moderated, just like CPI and PPI the last two sessions. Inflation remains at decade highs after the huge increases late last year and early this year. Central banks continue to drive home the point that interest rates will continue to increase, the Fed, ECB, BOE, and most others continue to remind that rates are going higher to drive a spike in inflation’s heart.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +252, NASDAQ +184, S&P +42. 10 yr. 2.91% +9 bp.

At 10 am FNMA 4.5 30 yr. coupon -39 bps and -36 bp from 10 am yesterday.

At 10 am the mid-month U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index expected at 63.7 from 65.2 in April, the index fell to 59.1 implying consumers are losing confidence in the outlook.

Already today the level of volatility in the treasury and MBS markets continues to roil markets. The 10 moving three basis points at a time, MBSs also swinging in wide changes.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr note: 2.93% +11 bp

5 yr note: 2.88% +11 bp

2 Yr note: 2.60% +9 bp

30 yr bond: 2.99% +2 bp

Libor Rates: 1 mo 0.875%; 3 mo 1.411%; 6 mo 1.959: 1 yr 2.630% (5/12/22)

30 yr FNMA 4.0: @10:00 99.20 -27 bp (-18 bp from 10:00 am yesterday)

30 yr FNMA 4.5: @ 10:00 101.02 -39 bp (-36 bp from 10:00 am yesterday)

30 yr GNMA 4.0: @10:00 100.39 -27 bp (-13 bp from 10:00 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.7988 +$0.0118

Dollar/Yen: 129.24 +0.93 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0371 -$0.0012

Dollar Index: 104.93 +0.08

Gold: $1805 -$20.00

Bitcoin: 30.02 +2230

Crude Oil: $108.63 +$2.50

DJIA: 32,093 +363

NASDAQ: 11,709 +338

S&P 500: 4003 +73

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.