CHM Blog

Daily Market Analysis March 6, 2023

March 6th, 2023 9:15 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568

Daily Market Analysis

The 10 year note at 9 am ET 3.91% -5 bps and MBS prices +16 bps. Tomorrow and Wednesday Jerome Powell will testify at the senate banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee. Treasury will auction 10s and 30s Wednesday and Thursday. The Feb employment report on Friday.

Powell isn’t likely to deviate from other Fed officials. Recent data has upped the ante on how high the Fed is prepared to go as inflation slows but remains well above what the Fed wants to see. Congress will press him about the potential damage to the economy and whether the Fed is concerned about it. “The committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective,” the Fed said in its semi-annual report to Congress released Friday. Officials expect that “ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive.”

The Jan employment report rocked the markets when reported a month ago, job growth exploded, NFP jobs were thought to be +160K, as reported +517K, private jobs also blew well above forecasts at +443K. Was it an anomaly or is job growth running much hotter than economists thought? Job growth revisions are a strong possibility and Feb jobs forecast more reasonable. This week we’ll hear a lot of opinions about the job market.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened quietly, +17, NASDAQ +53, S&P +8. 10 year 3.92% -4 bps. MBSs not much improvement, 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 +2 bps and +14 bps from 9:30 am Friday, the 5.5 coupon +5 bps and +24 bp from 9:30 am Friday.

At 10 am Jan factory orders, thought to be down 1.8%, declined 1.6%.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr note: 3.94% -2 bp

5 yr note: 4.23% -3 bp

2 Yr note: 4.87% unch

30 yr bond: 3.87% -1 bp

Libor Rates: 1 mo 4.709%; 3 mo 4.984%; 6 mo 5.316%; 1 yr 5.694% (3/3/23)

30 yr FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.06 +2 bp (+14 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 yr FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.69 +5 bp (+24 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 yr GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.33 +5 bp (+23 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.9320 +$0.0246

Dollar/Yen: 135.95 +0.10 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0667 +$0.0032

Dollar Index: 104.41 -0.11

Gold: $1858.90 +$4.30

Bitcoin: 22,432 -50

Crude Oil: $79.03 -$0.65

DJIA: 33,440 +50

NASDAQ: 11,737 +48

S&P 500: 4058 +13

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on March 6th, 2023 9:15 AM



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